Friday, March 31, 2006

A better chance will not present itself

Of course I'm talking about the Oilers' opportunity to stick it to the Flames on Saturday night. Home game. Hockey Night in Canada. Flames on the 2nd half of a back-to-back. The Oilers have a supreme chance to publicly shame the Flames on the People's Network as utterly impotent offensively. Any somewhat serious hockey fan can see that the Flames have a lot more floaters than swimmers in the offensive zone, but I don't think the entire nation is aware that the Flames aren't capable of getting it up.

The stars aligned nicely on Thursday night as the Kings rolled into town looking like a complete mess that the Oilers would run over. Sure enough, that's exactly how it turned out. The Flames could very well be the same thing after their Colorado game tonight. They're scoring as little as ever and their record since the deadline is poor at 4-5-1. The home ice advantage and the back-to-back games should be too much to overcome. Granted the Flames aren't nearly as hopeless as the Kings have been since Dave Taylor lost his cool, but their mojo has been waning all year and they haven't proven themselves as the superior team in Alberta this season by any stretch. A convincing Oiler win Saturday night speaks volumes and I'm ready for it.

As an aside... Vic will hopefully tell us what this is worth, but this site has some vegas odds: http://www.vegasinsider.com/nhl/odds/offshore/

The only site there with Saturday night odds has the Oilers as -410/+370 favourites. Whatever that means.

10 Comments:

Blogger mudcrutch79 said...

Fuck...those are crazy lines. As I understand it, you have to bet $370 on the Oilers to win $100 but just $100 on the Flames to win $410.

Vegas thinks the Flames suck.

3/31/2006 5:07 pm  
Blogger RiversQ said...

mudcrutch79 said...
Fuck...those are crazy lines. As I understand it, you have to bet $370 on the Oilers to win $100 but just $100 on the Flames to win $410.

Vegas thinks the Flames suck.


Of course, Vegas probably also thinks that home ice plus one day rest vs. road team with zero rest is hard to ignore.

3/31/2006 5:18 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

That's either a mistake or an intentionally erroneous number put there to draw bettors to the bodog site. The site linked isn't actually selling those odds, and there is no way in hell that they wil IMO. -410 means that you'd have to be $410 in order to take a $100 profit on the wager. The +370 means that a $100 wager wins a $370 profit if successful.

In other terms:
They are giving the Oilers nearly an 80% chance of winning.

Madness. Plus that's a 1.7% standard profit margin.

When bodog post real numbers I'm sure they will be in the -140/+120 to -145/+125 range, in favour of Edmonton.

.

If you do see anyone posting a -410 line for that game, or one like it. Let me know straight away :-) And my advice would be to bet the maximum that they allow on a single wager, on CGY. Then get everyone you know to open an account there and do the same.

3/31/2006 5:34 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

RiversQ:

On the original point of the post, I agree completely. It seems like every game is the "biggest game of the year" around here in March. But this one really is huge. As you say, has all the right ingredients, the table is set well for the Oilers here.

Win in regulation and we'll be talking about 5th place, and credibly so.

Lose it and Oiler fans will be scared shitless about missing the playoffs altogether. And rightly so.

Good stuff. The Battle of Alberta really matters a lot to both teams. :-) Good times.

3/31/2006 5:39 pm  
Blogger Dennis said...

Vic I didn't see you address this but what did you make of the line matching going on in the last game? Was MacT follwing along with Torchetti or was MacT purposely keeping 10's line away from Conroy's? This could be the biggest development of the season, IMO.

If MacT all of a sudden goes with 18/37 and 34 or 20 against the other team's top lines and I love the chances of the 10 and 16 lines coming out and eating the other team's alive.

That's what I'll be looking for tomorrow night.

And to wit I won't panic about a loss tomorrow night unless the Sharks manage to take out the Yotes. That being said I'm not panicing anyway. I've made peace with the Oil missing the playoffs and now I'm just along for the ride.

As I always say...expect the worst and you'll never be disappointed;)

3/31/2006 5:56 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

Dennis:

Ya, but without Demitra, and with Frolov playing hurt ... is Conroy really a guy you have to target to shut down? I mean the Peca line did well, I don't remember any scoring chances from that trio. And #37 drew the penalty from Frolov to boot. Still.

I agree with you that either MacTavish bumps Dvorak to the top unit and they go power-vs-power ... or they go to an old school shut down line. But surely one of the two has to happen before the playoffs start, and I'd bet on the latter.

I think you're right in that the way he runs the matchups against Iginla should give us a clear cut idea of how the team will roll forward into the playoffs.

BTW: Just checked the shift chart and Pronger was on the ice for over 80% of Frolov's 5on5 icetime. So that lends credence to your assertion that the Conroy line in general, and Frolov in particular, was a clear target of the Oilers game plan. Hmmm.

3/31/2006 6:57 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

RiversQ:

Just thinking about this a bit, so I ran the Sagarin simulation for a couple of scenarios. And assuming that you, like me, are hoping for a 5th place finish and a 1st round matchup with the Preds ... then the best case scenario is for the Avs to win in Cowtown tonight. Then if they can beat CGY in the big BofA game on Saturday ... they'll have a better chance than anyone of gaining the #5 slot.

Even moreso if COL runs away with the division, so the last game of the year, in Rexall, they can rest Sakic, Blake, Tanguay. :-)

That's the dream scenario I think.

But if they can't close the deal on Saturday they we can stop dreaming about 5th methinks. Huge game.

3/31/2006 7:13 pm  
Blogger Dennis said...

Thanks for the clarification Vic. Of course I've been known to see what I want to see;) but I was buoyed by what I saw re line matching on Thurs night and I hope to see it tonight. Like I said before...I'll bet that 18-37-20 or 34 can keep some kind of a handle on Iginla and I love our other three lines vs their other three lines.

And the Oilers PP is starting to smoke too. I'll expect at least a goal from that crew. The only thing that concerns me is I'm wondering how long our PK streak's gonna last because you know when it turns we'll give up like 5 or 6 goals in 3 or 4 games. I'd hope we make it through tonight because if we run out of PK gas say Monday vs Phx then we're facing a team that we're more likely to score on than Cgy. I mean if our PK went cold tonight and gave up two then we'd better hope our PP can match.

Anyway...I'm super charged for this one. Because last night's game in Cgy was decided in reg we still have a shot to take out Col for 5th place. Granted we can't forget about the Ducks either. Sidenote: can you believe that Dallas f++ked us again last night? They've blown two 3rd period leads the whole bloody season and both have been against Ana.

Anyway if we finish 6th I'll get an ulcer worrying about losing to Cgy but I'd take a matchup with the Flames over one with the Stars any damn day of the week. I wouldn't mind Det either but you just know we're gonna finish 7th somehow;)

4/01/2006 1:53 pm  
Blogger Dennis said...

Damn disappointing...not from an asthetic POV mind you but in the fact that the Oil outplayed the HWGM and still manage to find themselves down 1-0.

It really killed me when Hemsky was stopped cold in the slot. I don't know if 83 realized Kipper was sans baton so he tried to slide one 5hole or maybe he just shot it. Kipper was leaning too far to his right though so what a time to try and snipe high. It was also nice to see Hemsky throw a hit. F**k, even 12 threw two hits in the same shift. And speaking of 12...it's funny how it's basically the Samsanov show at 4on4. Everyone tries to get the puck to him. I read today that he has 11 points in 10 career games vs the Flames so watch for him to make a splash. We know he doesn't need much water..

Great job by MacT with the line-matching...he's getting Peca out there against Iginla and I caught one shift where he didn't get that match, ie the 16 line went out there. Yes the goal went in on that matchup but I don't know what Smith was doing there. Yeah Tarnstrom couldn't knock down the pass and it was an awful pass but why wasn't Smith back further? Note: Langkow kills us and always has...or at least since he's been a Yote. Note 2: 6/44 has usually been out against Iginla but in this case it was 23/21.

So if Peca's out against Iginla and we're all in agreeance that the Flames suck otherwise...the 10 line had better take advantage of the softer min they're getting. The 10 and 16 lines for that matter. MAP continues to win draws and that line's looked good in their three shifts.

On the Simon/Hemksy business...man that line didn't look tough when it all started going down did they?;) Nice to see 94 come in to say his peace though. And of course we'd all love to see BG take the piss out of Simon...for a number of reasons.

So much hitting and emotion...isn't it funny how Torres hasn't made a mark yet? Seems like the kind of game he'd be all over. Bergeron seems to have lost all confidence handling the puck and I did see 24 make one or two jumps, as per Vic's opinion of him lately.

Let's hope Rolo doesn't let in any questionable goals tonight because the Oil are already down one and it's hard to imagine them scoring more than three goals on Kipper.

Mush is out there running around like a good and how is that not a penalty when he jumps into the air to hit 12? In any case Mush/Hulse playing together so result in some good scoring chances for some line at some time during this game.

4/01/2006 9:02 pm  
Blogger Dennis said...

After the second period..

Well this one's over. I wouldn't doubt the Oilers could come back from being down one after 40 but not much of a chance to come back from two against the Flames.

Kipper is just too bloody hard to beat.

Out of town sboard...3-0 Yotes in SJ with two min left as I type this. And LA's winning 1-0 over Dal in the 2nd. We need LA to stick around so they won't quit.

So I guess we'll see the Oilers bring up their D and press to get the 3-2 goal and the Flames will get odd man rushes and they'll score...unless Rolo sells his soul in the intermission. Not really much fault for Rolo in this one. Neale said that Huselis didn't have the puck on his stick long before the goal but the replay showed that he took his time and Rolo wasn't great in his lateral movement. Of course Rolo did make that great pad save but only after he kicked a hellacious rebound into the slot.

Other stuff...I've been waiting a long time for BG to pound Simon. And I enjoyed it as much as I thought it would;) Georges looked awkward trying to rile up the crowd though:)

Speaking of that line...has MAP looked good or what? He's not shying away from the contact and he looks like he belongs out there. That's the best thing you can say about a kid that's playing games as big as this.

Oilers looked like monkeys on the 2nd goal and especially the 6/44 tandem. And I'd like to see more from 44 in what is a huge game. Bust someone in the mouth or keep just about every shift panic free. Stuff like that.

Anyway...let's hope Phx holds on.

4/01/2006 10:01 pm  

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