Thursday, March 16, 2006

The Flames D vs Joe Sakic

For your consumption and commentary, this is how the icetime at 5 on 5 shook out in the last game, only as accurate as the NHL shift chart.

PLAYER 5 on 5 Minutes vs Sakic
Leopold 8.3
Regehr 7.9
Ference 5.3
Hulse 5.3
Phaneuf 2.0
Marchment 1.7

I didn't see the game, just stripped the info off the shiftchart. Looks like these must have been the pairings for most of the night.

Not much to see on the forwards, other than it looks like Sutter rolled four lines, and he really avoided a Lundmark-Sakic head to head.

11 Comments:

Blogger RiversQ said...

Interesting to see Leopold up there. He's having a Peca-like season offensively in all situations, but playing lots of minutes and apparently tough ones as well. The Flames needed that with Hamrlik and Warrener out for extended periods.

Brings up a point though. If you go to Cosh's site today he's got some kind of depth chart/salary thing going on there. Of course, it's fatally flawed because he used tsn.ca's depth charts which are complete and utter BS. Case in point (and probably just one of 2-3 you could find in every team there): Phaneuf is listed in their top pair.

Anyway, it was interesting stuff, but would be moreso, if he'd ignored depth charts and just gone by position. The other flaw is that he correlates to winning percentage instead of using goal differential.

3/16/2006 11:15 am  
Blogger speeds said...

so what matchups do we expect tonight?

Is it as simple as EDM matches Pronger/Spacek vs. Iginla's line, and just rolls the forwards?

3/16/2006 12:06 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

speeds:

That would be my guess.

And I'd think that the MacTavish will avoid the 4th line against Iginla. Probably the Stoll line too. Depending on how everyone is playing I suppose.

And if there aren't many penalties I think the consistent Pronger-Iginla matchup is inevitable.

Never know, he may dedicate one responsible forward to be on the ice whenever Iggy is. Like we've seen with Peca and Moreau in the past. Kinda doubt it in a home game though.

What's your best guess, speeds?

3/16/2006 12:18 pm  
Blogger speeds said...

Depends how comfortable he is with Pisani at C.

I would think though that if he can match Pisani/Moreau/Dvorak/Pronger/Spacek vs Iginla's line, that EDM can roll the other 3 lines and expect to dominate the other 3 CAL forward lines. If that 5some can neutralize the Iginla line I think EDM just has too many skilled forwards for CAL to hold off the other 3 lines all night. I actually think tonight is a good night to stick Pouliot in the lineup because if you can match EDM's 4th line with CAL's I don't think Pouliot could get in much trouble.

In particular if EDM can draw some penalties, and continue to roll on teh PP at the 5 for 13 clip they have since Samsonov's arrival (and they've looked better than that percentage, IMO), I have to thin they've got a pretty decent chance tonight

3/16/2006 12:35 pm  
Blogger speeds said...

"dominate" might be strong, "outplay" might be a more accurate guess.

3/16/2006 12:36 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

riversq:

Thanks for the heads up. It's at www.colbycosh.com for anyone that doesn't know that blog. Ya, the data isn't complete, and the 'correlation to winning' stuff is a bit iffy, just too many variables. Though in fairness it isn't presented as hard evidence or anything.

Seeing the average salaries listed out like that is pretty damn interesting. That's big coin for the average 3rd centre. And once you get past the top Dman on a team, maybe the second guy ... those players are well behind the forwards $wise, relative to the amount of minutes they play. Which is fair enough I think.

When you look at that graphic, then read lowetide's blog from yesterday ... really drives home the point that the Oilers top six forwards are a helluva bargain. I don't think that they will be quite as affordable next year though.

3/16/2006 12:55 pm  
Blogger Dennis said...

I didn't catch the rematch on Monday night but I did check out the Cgy/Col game on Sunday and here's their line combos, ie I know Lundmark drew in on Monday and it was for LeClerc
Huselis-Lankgkow-Iginla
Amonte-Yelle-McCarthy
Simon-Lombardi-Kobesew
Nilsson-LeClerc-Donovan

Lord have mercy is there any wonder that team can't score? They're destroying whole forests with the Herald and Sun griping about this team's inability to bend the twine. You know it's bad when you're reading the CSun and they're actually talking about the creativity of the Simon-Lombardi-Kobesew line:D

I wonder how many times are guys like Sportak and Co tempted to pen a piece entitled, "Flames Offense Doused..Lack Of Sparks Not A Surprise."

Regarding predicitons for tonight, ie line matching and the result in general, I'd say yes 6-44 against Iginla and the 18-34-20 line as well. If we stop Iginla then we should win because our D looks good and deep right now and our forward corps is certainly much better than the Golden Seals, er I mean Flames.

3/16/2006 2:19 pm  
Blogger speeds said...

geez Vic, you should coach ;)

MacT starts the 4th line against Iginla's, and the Oilers were fortunate the Flames didn't pot one that first shift.

3/16/2006 10:11 pm  
Blogger Dennis said...

For the most part, at least to my naked eye, we did see the 4th line against Iggy's line and I'll be damned if they didn't do a bad job either.

3/16/2006 10:39 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

Dennis said...

For the most part, at least to my naked eye, we did see the 4th line against Iggy's line and I'll be damned if they didn't do a bad job either.

Ya, we did see them a lot together. MacTavish was rolling them. Whether they did well or not ... an 'eye of the beholder' thing. Clearly MacTavish agreed with you, and not me and speeds. And in fairnes they did have some shifts where they kept the puck hemmed in the Flames end. And Iggy can't kill you if he never touches the puck in his shift.

Still, when Laraque gets more icetime than any other winger against Iginla at 5on5 ... you're playing with fire IMO. I mean I know you're probably lessening his icetime, because Sutter is going to take what you're giving, and hold Iggy on the bench until he sees that line out there a bunch.

It's a game of risk and rewards. And while it's tough to argue with results, the flipside is that ... just because you won the bet on the day doesn't mean you are a good gambler.

Scared the hell outta me. Even though I was kinda expecting it.

3/17/2006 11:21 am  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

To add: Was the Stoll line a nightmare or what? How the hell do you justify not making a special effort to keep that trio away from Iginla. Hell even off the ice altogether. Dunno.

3/17/2006 11:27 am  

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