Wednesday, March 15, 2006

Playing The Minutes Against Gaborik

Obviously a road game, and a game in which MacTavish had four credible lines to roll (for the first time in a while). Still, thought I'd throw this up here, as Gaborik is clearly the main threat on the Wild squad at 5 on 5 hockey.

This just for 5 on 5, just grabbed the centres and the representative guys for each D pairing:


Horcoff 5.8
Pisani 4.2
Stoll 2.0
Peca 1.1

Pronger 6.4
Smith 5.3
Greene 1.0

Samsonov 1.0


So, my thoughts:

* Nothing too surprising. Though pretty clearly Pronger and Smith are eating up the tough minutes still. This split is pretty representative of road games for the year I think.
* Pisani takes a lot of responsibility in his first game as a centre in ages.
* Peca is in the doghouse.
* Other teams seem to try and run their stars out against the Horcoff line ... and MacTavish doesn't seem to mind too much in a lot of games, hell he even goes for that matchup on home ice sometimes. I don't get that.

BTW: This comes from a little Excel macro that I wrote that downloads the gif shiftcharts from and reads them. This shift chart reader is downloadable in a few places around the internet I think.


Blogger RiversQ said...

The plot thickens regarding Peca...

Of course the road thing is playing a bit of a role here, but I really doubt Lemaire was trying to dodge Peca last night. Although I just checked the shift chart and there appears to be some gamesmanship there involving Gaborik and Peca about halfway through the 2nd and at about the 15min mark of the third. That may have involved Peca coming in to take the draws though.

The Pisani move was a sharp one by MacT. I had forgotten that he played some centre in college and for awhile in the AHL.

3/15/2006 1:31 pm  
Anonymous lowetide said...

Pisani is like the "secret hand shake" for hockey fans. He's a subtle player, kind of a poor man's Craig Ramsay.

Future coach I'd bet.

3/15/2006 1:44 pm  
Blogger speeds said...

So, what's Pisani come up with as a UFA this summer?

Wil he be unappreciated enough that EDM can afford to keep him, or will some team into "stats" outbid the Oil?

3/15/2006 2:04 pm  
Blogger Dennis said...

First off welcome aboard Mike...nice to see you here:)

I like Fernie, I really do and I don't think he was ever hotter than he was at Christmas and I had my Habs buddies back home drove nuts with trade suggestions like Fernie for Higgins and Kommisarek:)

In any case when I like a guy I can be tough on him too and lately 34's game had been worrying me a lot. It wasn't that he wasn't's that he wasn't even getting into position and this is the thing I normally reserve for goalscorers but I seems like he had sort of lost his way. Almost like Reasoner before him except 34's ES numbers hadn't taken the same dive. In any case it wouldn't surprise me if we couldn't make a centre out of 34 but to me that's a project for next year's camp. In the end it could be great for us as it might just allow us to break in MAP very slowly as the 4th line pivot.

I had a whole scnario concocted over at OF where Sergei really liked us and we really liked him, it all started when he added us to his MSN;, and he resigns so it's 12-94 as the portside version of the top six, 10-16 down the middle and 83 plus Dvorak on the right side, ie Dvorak has taken a pay cut obviously, and we go with a 94-10-20 first line that can hold their own against other team's top lines while 12-16-83 is just out there to dazzle. Rob Schremp breaks in on the third line RW alongside 18-34 and we break him in like we did with Hemsky with Reasoner-Moreau at the beginning of '03. The 4th line has MAP and BG back for cheap and the 4th line LW is open for debate. And we thusly deal Torres for a young D or a young goalie.

3/15/2006 5:18 pm  
Blogger speeds said...

I'll be surprised if Dvorak has to take a paycut this summer.

He might need to if he wants to stay in EDM, but couldn't a team like MIN, or WSH, use him, and pay him more than EDM can afford?

3/15/2006 5:56 pm  
Anonymous lowetide said...

I think Dvorak is a guy who will have a market. His injury has cut into the numbers and he's not as effective as he was in 03-04, but someone will take a shot.

And then those that don't appreciate veteran role players like him will be sorry.

And the smart will then inherit car dealerships and my idiot neighbor will walk across the street to say he's sorry for all the dumb stuff I've had to watch him do.

Whew. That feels better. :-)

3/15/2006 6:12 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

speeds said...

So, what's Pisani come up with as a UFA this summer?

Will he be unappreciated enough that EDM can afford to keep him, or will some team into "stats" outbid the Oil?

First off, I can't see Pisani demanding big coin from anybody. His appeal is that he has a bigger impact on results than his salary dictates.

I don't think it's so much teams into stats as much as gms who listen to their coaches. Though both are probably factors. The fact that Pisani has a bitchin' RonWilson # over any stretch that he is healthy, and overall ... and because S.J like the pressure game when they have the roster to do it, and the fact that Doug Wilson is deeper into the numbers than Ron ... that all leads me to believe that they would be interested. L.A too for simlar reasons. VAN and COL good fits. I can't see Pisani being of any interest to a team that plays a passive game though.

And the East teams don't see enough of him to bother I suspect. I could see MTL, T.B, PHI and OTT showing interest.

I dunno, I hope they can keep him on the Oiler roster for decent coin. I mean for the last while, since Christmas really, he's not kept possession going forward the way we are used to ... wqhen your wilson# goes in the crapper like that you're always injured, just are. Whether the team has admitted to it or not. And as much as I've been harshing on the guy lately (not as much as Dennis, but still ... ) I checked his his shots against/for numbers which were spat out when I was looking for something else ... and he's not giving much back the other way either. shots-agaionst rate at 5on5 is stunning ... so we know he can tough it out.

He's a keeper IMO. Dvo too. I hope they can resign these guys. Even if they don't wow the kids, damn good hockey players.

3/15/2006 9:20 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

lowetide said...

I think Dvorak is a guy who will have a market. His injury has cut into the numbers and he's not as effective as he was in 03-04, but someone will take a shot.

And then those that don't appreciate veteran role players like him will be sorry.

Ya, I think so too.

I've been pegging Dvo as the odd man out in the summer for a while (stayed out longer with injury than the coaching staff wanted a while ago, and his agent is Rich Winter ... seemed like a double whammy) But after hearing Lowe talk about him on deadline day ... I'm feeling like there is at least a chance they'll make an effort to re-sign him. He's a guy who controls the puck, I agree with Lowe there. And I think that he's a lot ballsier player than he gets credit for ... I hear fans sometimes say that he's soft. Bollocks. If his hockey card listed his birthplace as Flin Flon on the back, instead of the Czech Republic ... I guarantee that no casual fan would think that.

3/15/2006 9:28 pm  
Blogger Dennis said...

RD's currently making 4 grand short of $1.6 mill. He's put up 7-25-51 and he's -4 in '06. I love his work ethic as much as the next guy, and it took me a long time to come around to it, but I've got a tough time believing anyone's gonna offer him much more than $1 mill a year. Yes you might have some intrepid GM that looks to '04 and discovers he had 15-50-78 and was +18 while playing some tough minutes but for the most part I'd say there's at least 20 teams who won't even bat an eyelash if he comes across the wire as a UFA.

3/15/2006 10:18 pm  
Blogger RiversQ said...

I don't know Dennis. Dvorak's putting up a decent ESP/hr number that's not far from last season's excellent number. It's a shade above Torres' number and a shade below Smyth, so he's still in decent company there. Vic also has him at even at 5on5 for the year and we know he got hellish minutes when he was healthy and still draws some of the tougher minutes at RW now.

He's also played 15 fewer games than most of his teammates which hurts his counting totals.

Lastly, he's had some bad luck with a 6.25% SH%. He hasn't been much of a shooter the past few years, but that's even pretty bad for him. Funny, after his first 5-6 years in the league he looked like your average 10-12% shooter, but it seems that ever since he had that bad knee injury with the NYR that his SH% has plummeted.

Bottom line is that I think Dvorak has had a decent year. It's certainly not a great one, but I'm not convinced he's hurt his value with this one.

3/16/2006 12:40 am  

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