Saturday, April 29, 2006

Delaying Dubnyk's Deal

I know LT had wondered on his blog what the hold up might be with regards to signing Dubnyk. Anyone else starting to wonder as well?

With Dubnyk's season over it can't be a matter of wanting to see more games. What can it be about other than money?

Interesting quote from Schremp on the matter:

Signing a three-year contract with Edmonton before his return to London also made another year of junior more palatable.

"It makes things a lot easier when they sign you because you could spend the whole year going 'Do they want you?"' Schremp said. "It's kind of a lot of pressure. Signing a contract was a relief. It lets you know you definitely have a spot in their organization."

Should be read anything into Schremp being signed, and Dubnyk still not signed a year later, a month and a day from the deadline before re-entry (should Dubnyk re-enter, the Oilers would receive 44 OV in the 2006 draft as compensation)?


Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

Things that make you go hmmm.

Maybe the Oilers are gunshy after throwing the signing of Deslauriers. I don't know what his signing bonus was, a million maybe? ... in any case it is money down the drain.

Dubnyk hasn't exactly dazzled since he was drafted. I think that the Oilers should try a best guess at where Dubnyk would be drafted if he re-entered in 2006 (Let's say 50th overall) ... and then offer a signing bonus commensurate with that position, maybe a shade more.

Where do you think Dubnyk would get takien if he was in this upcoming draft, speeds? Hell, if he's not a concensus top 60 pick this June why wouldn't the Oilers just let him go and take the #44 compensatory pick?

4/29/2006 10:19 am  
Anonymous lowetide said...

I think he'd go top 40. Dubnyk didn't have a terrible season and he would certainly be a less expensive signing as a second go-round.

IF they don't sign him, where would the pick be speeds? Top 40?

Also, might they consider just signing a RFA goalie?

Or maybe they sign Rolo and deal for Raycroft and sign DD for the future.

Lowe and goalies. Who knows?

4/29/2006 10:46 am  
Blogger speeds said...

any compensatory pick for a first rounder is the same pick that the player was originally picked, but in the second round. Wow, that's a bad sentence.

What I mean is, Dubnyk was taken 14th overall, so EDM would be awarded the 14th pick of the 2nd round, 44th overall. That would be BTB 2nd round picks, as Niinimaki was selected 15th overall in 2002 (thus his compensatory pick is 45th overall).

Dubnyk doesn't look like a great pick already, but it would be total disaster for him to be so bad they take the compensatory pick instead.

I will mention Meszaros again, but there are at least a couple other guys that look better than Dubnyk picked after 14 ov.

Radulov at 15, Nokaleinen at 16, Schwarz is somewhat of a question mark but his numbers look pretty good, IIRC. Never mind Meszaros 23, Schremp 25, Wolski 21, Schneider 26, Green 29.

I mention Schneider because he was a goalie many had ahead of Dubnyk at the draft (along with Schwarz), and Green because he slid much farther than most expected (he's already played in the NHL, but considering he's a Capital I don't know that means much)

4/29/2006 11:06 am  
Blogger Dennis said...

Maybe Lowe's pretty close to inking Rolo for another two years and doesn't feel like it's worth the signing bonus to ink DD.

And yes in the meantime he goes out and buys low on Raycroft and he's our backup next year.

4/29/2006 11:57 am  
Anonymous lowetide said...

For the record I think they'll sign Dubnyk if only because it would be a PR nightmare (as speeds mentioned) and that if you cut him loose then you really need to fire your entire scouting staff.

And I'm not sure you could do it before they resign.

4/29/2006 2:01 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maybe Dubnyk is holding out to make sure he has an AHL spot next year.

If I were him, I wouldn't sign either if the Oilers were going to send me back to Kamloops for another year.

I'd rather go back into the draft and go to a team with a spot for me. You'd obviously give up some money, but it would give you to the pros a year earlier.


4/29/2006 3:08 pm  
Blogger Asiaoil said...

You guys are are buying into the BS about DD and the truth will be evident in due time. Talk about Schwarz and Schneider being better is hocum - I've speculated with some evidence that Dubnyk's ES SP was probably as good or better than Pogge's this last season.

This guy put up very good results on an astonishingly bad Kamloops team - he wasnt pimped playing behind all-stars - he was a 3 star in 40% of the games he played in - his teammate rave about him.

Hell Pogge finally saw just a bit of the heat that DD faced every day of his junior career in the playoffs and became ordinary very quickly. The internet community has over-rated JDD for years and has under-rated DD for years - no reason or rhyme to it.

Speeds come on - we all know you liked Meszaros - it was a good call - but you love all the high risk high reward Euros and every once in a while you will hit. You have missed on way more of these guys over the years and saying we should have picked Meszaros over DD at this point is both premature and 20-20 hindsight.

4/29/2006 10:29 pm  
Blogger speeds said...

One thing it's not is hindsight. And I think my list has produced better than the Oilers have drafted, but it could well be a sample size issue.

Meszaros was a small risk big reward D who paid off handsomely for OTT, congrats to them. I have certainly liked guys who have busted, who is saying drafting is a 100% lock?

Dubnyk is going to have to be very good to outperfrom Meszaros's 7 years. And I hope he is, personally he was a goalie I absolutely did not want the Oilers to draft, but they did, so I'm pulling for him.

4/30/2006 8:32 am  
Anonymous lowetide said...


Today's Sun has the Oilers Laforge saying a split affiliation is likely this fall/winter so your point is one to follow as things roll out.

4/30/2006 10:22 am  
Blogger Asiaoil said...

Speeds you have indeed outperformed the Oilers and I have said many times that I would be OK with you actually doing the damn draft - but Meszaros is a rare faller who pans out this well. You are wise my friend but also very lucky in this case.

The Oilers did the same thing with JDD - the negotiations went down to the last hour - the Oilers do very little right when it comes to goalies.

Not that mock drafts mean anything - but Bernier is slated to go mid-late first round by almost everyone - and no one can convince me that he has more upside or had a better season last year. In this draft Dubnyk would go right where he went last time for reasons of less risk if nothing else. The kid still has the same upside and has performed very well in a very bad situation in Kamloops. Good player - bad team - decent stats - player to watch.

So speeds my friend - you have earned your "I tld ya so's on Meszaros - but its far too early to say anything about Dubnyk

4/30/2006 5:20 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...


Why so high on Dubnyk?

It may be that his even strength save% is very good, that his team spends a lot of time on the PK and even 5on3s ... but I've yet to see anything that proves that (granted I don't follow prospects that closely).

And AFAIK he has not done anything to show himself to be an exemplary goalie at the WHL level, not that I've seen or read.

mudcrutch has me convinced that a goalie should usually be getting damn good save% results as a youngster if he's going to turn into a quality starter. I don't buy the "it takes goalies 10 years to develop" theory any more, or at least not as much any more. :-)

4/30/2006 10:05 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...


Good point. I hadn' thought of it from Dubnyk's POV, but yeah, it's possible that his agent wants to be sure that his client doesn't end up in a situation where he isn't starting pro games next season.

Though as a player agent, methinks you'd have to be pretty confident that Dubnyk would still be picked pretty early if he went back into the draft pool.

4/30/2006 10:08 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Obviously most of you did not have the "pleasure" of watching many Blazers games this past season. Dubnyk was the only bright spot on the team, which Team Canada realized by selecting him as the backup for the gold medal winning team. Rumor has it the Oilers finally got around to offering Dubnyk the cap (why this team waits to the last minute on every deal...?), which is obviously what a top 20 draft pick is going to get these days. Looks like they've locked up what will be a future big time player.

5/19/2006 1:01 pm  

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