Wednesday, April 19, 2006

Oilers Given An 18% Chance Of Winning The Series

This from offshore oddsmakers, I know at least a few Oiler fans take their opinion seriously. This is the early line, won't change much. That's -550/425.

Meaning that if you were wagering on Detroit --> in order to win $100 profit you'd need to bet $550.
And if you are wagering on Edmonton --> a $100 bet fetches a $425 profit.

With a low theoretical hold of course (3.5%). There is no room for these guys to move if they get heavy action on one side of the bet, the margins are too small. Only thing they can do is move one end of the line out a bit ... say move DET to -570 if they get too much on that side, just to encourage the heavy bettors to find a better deal elsewhere.

Not really surprising, but a lower chance for the Oilers than I had thought. :-( I suspect that most bookies will be needing the Oilers to win to make money with this one.

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The positive, and there is ALWAYS a positive, just a matter of finding it :-) ... if they get the split in Detroit then things look brighter (up to about 25%).

3 Comments:

Blogger Dennis said...

So I guess no one pays any heed to season series results? Maybe I'm getting caught up in playoff hoopla but I'd be stunned if the Oilers don't win at least two games in this series. But the oddsmakers cannot feel this way or else the odds would be a lot closer together, no?

4/19/2006 10:34 pm  
Blogger Nastyboy said...

I love this blog.

I've linked your blog on mine.

Go Oilers!!!!!!

www.themsfightinwords.blogspot.com

4/20/2006 4:33 am  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

dennis:

Yeah, pretty much. The head to head data, and all the home/road stuff is pretty much just put together for the punters. Give them reams of meaningless data, convince them that they're really just betting against John Q Public (i.e. that you're setting the lines in the middle of the action) ... and let them fly. :-)

Your ability to score goals and prevent them is what matters. And for a team like CGY ... your ability to do that with Kipper in net is what matters, because he will be playing in the playoffs. Same with Forsberg in PHI, etc.

If you look at the Sagarin numbers on USAToday, and just ignore everything except the far right hand side ... the predictor numbers. Then Sagarin's Predictor is for DET to be favoured by 1.07 goals in a neutral site game, and he gives home ice advantage as .39 goals (which is too high because it doesn't account for the high % of B2B games being played on the road).

Still, parlay that through and Sagarin would give them a 15% chance of winning the series. [i.e. A 34% chance of winning a neutral site game.]

I have them the Oilers at 36% for the mythical neutral site game. TheGreek.com at 35% (they're always first with hockey lines it seems, setting the benchmark)

That seems like we're all close, but really that's a helluva spread. 34% to 36%. Bear in mind that me and Sagarin are poor handicappers and thegreek has ulterior motives though.

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In any case, the series is more likely to go 6+ games than less than that. Just by a shade though. Those sorts of detailed lines won't hit the market until later today or tomorrow though.

4/20/2006 7:49 am  

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