Thursday, April 13, 2006

Parlaying The Odds: The Oilers Playoff Chances

Well, the bookmakers are listing the Oilers as having a 54% chance of winning tonight, and the Canucks a 37% chance of winning. The Avs a 40% chance of winning.

No early lines posted yet for the remaining games, but if they are still meaningful for all teams involved; then VAN will be given about a 50% chance of winning at home vs COL and EDM a 53% chance of winning against COL at home. Or within 1% of that anyways. Steady pegging for OTL point chances these teams.

Parlay that through and the Oilers have about a 72% chance of making the playoffs in 8th place or better, and a 5% of making them ahead of the Avalanche (which would mean ALSO finishing ahead of the Nucks, and get them 7th spot).

Disagree with the bookies? Sure you're right? Then bet against them! They're only running at 3.5% margins (holds) here. :-)

.

BTW: What happens with baseball? The offshore houses that drive the lines are running with 2.5% holds. That's nuts, it means that not only do they know the probabities of wins REALLY well, but they also know the mistakes that the bettors will make, and in what measure. Crazy stuff.

Editted to correct for stupitidy.

8 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Can you explain why you would add those percentages - I don't understand?

I mean, the Avs would have a 95% of making the playoffs over the Oilers and maybe 99.99% chance over the Canucks, but you wouldn't say their odds were 194.99% of making it, right?

4/13/2006 5:21 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

You are right, anonymous, my bad.

I have no idea why I added that up, if I had been drinking I would have a legitimate excuse. But I wasn't.

I'll change it to reflect 72% chance of 8th place or better, 5% of 7th place.

4/13/2006 6:07 pm  
Blogger mudcrutch79 said...

Slightly more optimistic than me. I assume that the bookies have accounted for the effects of the Thornton trade and Avs travel better than I have.

4/13/2006 7:02 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

mudcrutch79 said...

Slightly more optimistic than me. I assume that the bookies have accounted for the effects of the Thornton trade and Avs travel better than I have.


Ya, but you cannot really deal with those things and still keep your numbers clean. Also the first bit of the season was madass and should be discounted, and they'll run a carryover from previous seasons as well. You're really close though, and the reason is that you're ignoring the extraneous information (Home and road records, head to head records, etc, etc)

You're really close though, impressively so knowing that you have not accounted for player injuries and trades. I mean the Flyers go from world beaters to also-rans the minute that Forsberg twists a knee. You know it, I know it, everyone knows it except for possibly die-hard Philly fans who are dissecting the fourth line. But you can't fiddle with things with what you are doing.

Funny thing, I was going to comment on your methodology when you first posted on OilFans and GabbyDugan kept bumping it, partly because of the fact that your home advantage is linked to scoring rate, which seems wrong to me, but that's minor. Mostly because early in the season you had not accounted for goaltending save% streaks and high-end players faltering. I was literally minutes from commenting and using Boston and Thornton as an example when he was traded. Mad shit. Joe was on the ice for a ridiculous amount of goals against then, much of it down to shoddy goaltending behind him I'm sure, much of it just bad fortune ... but you had to know that the career results would gravitate back to normal, all Boston had to do was remain calm and wait it out.

I was going to say the same thing about the Oilers then too. They have long relied on Smyth to drive 5on5 results, and at that point I thought that surely the goaltending would improve and when Smyth was fully fit they'd be back to a more rational scheme with Smyth, Horcoff and Dvorak/Pisani mowing down tough minutes and winning them games ... neither happened. And somehow these fuckers are probably still going to make the playoffs. Crazy stuff.

The sample correlation for 5on5 outscoring results by team, from year to year, it's powerful, the only true constant. And the Oilers are an anamoly this year. No wonder even normally sane Oiler fans have wandered out onto the ledge once or twice this season :-) I know that if the Oilers make the playoffs I wouldn't want to play them if I was Babcock (and the Wings are clearly a better team IMHO, as much as it pains me to say it) ... and if I were the Wings I would want to face S.J even less.

These playoffs are going to be a hoot. For everybody. Let's hope the Oilers are part of the show.

GO SHARKS!

4/13/2006 10:04 pm  
Anonymous Julian said...

more relevantly now, what might the odds be for Edm against Detroit vs. Edm against Dallas?

I remember you (vic) saying something about how EDM would be given about a 40% chance against Dallas this year as opposed to in the past when they had a 20-25% chance against them... would that remain the same seeing how edmonton has played the last few weeks?



I can't wait to rub this into the faces of my Leafs-loving family tomorrow at easter.....

4/13/2006 11:53 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

julian:

Not good. The oddswriters never did fall out of love with Conkannen, and they liked Reasoner even more than Loxy. The game lines took a shitkicking in the first post-trade game in S.J (-150 for the Sharks --- Yowza!) and were terrible in Samsonov's first game in CBJ and then in MIN too. Had them as underdogs at home two or three times when they got back too, which hadn't happened since OTT rolled into town, and I didn't think it would happen again all season, but there ya go. They didn't like Lowe's moves. I did, I think most Oiler fans did ... but they didn't.

Having said that, all you need is a few bounces, a few big saves, a goalpost here or there ... anybody can beat anybody in the Stanley Cup playoffs. And it's always fun. :-)

BTW: Julian, aka injektilo, are you the guy that did a game summary of Schremp in the playoffs last year in an HF post? It was just terrific stuff, and I want to link to it, any recollection of where you posted that and when (I'm pretty sure on HF, and also pretty sure that it was the playoffs but before the Memorial cup ... ring any bells?)

4/14/2006 12:22 am  
Anonymous Julian said...

Yeah, that was me. It was from a third round game against the Rangers, game.... i'm not sure what number, but I'm pretty sure it was the game the Knights won in OT, which would make it game four... uh, i think.

I'll see what I can do about finding it on HF. I'm glad you liked it, I was hoping to be able to do it again this season, but I never did get to see him play live, and Knights playoff tix are incredibly hard to get. If they play Guelph in the 3rd round this year, I'll try and be there, and I'll do the same thing again.

4/14/2006 1:15 am  
Anonymous Julian said...

http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=140911&page=1&pp=25

it's in this thread.



like I said, i'll do it again against guelph if i get the chance, hopefully with a more info. I'm sure his role is quite a bit different this year compared to last year.

4/14/2006 1:27 am  

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