Thursday, April 20, 2006

The Special teams battle

Yes, DET has splendid special teams. But the Oilers aren't all bad either.

On the year DET was 1st on the PP at 22.1%, and 3rd on the PK at 85.5%. They were SH and on the PP 461 times each.

EDM was 14th on the PP at 18.1% with 485 PP opps, and 8th in PK at 84.1% with 478 SH opps.

DET's net special teams were:

(PPGF - SHG allowed) - (PKGA - SHG for)
= (102-10) - (67-7)
= + 32

EDM's net special teams were:

= (88-5) - (76-15)
= + 22

When netting the sh goals against PP and PK I notice the following:

(1) EDM's PK was better than DET's on a net basis, over the course of the season.

(2) EDM's PP gains ground on DET's PP, but is still far worse, when netted.

NET PP and PK numbers:

PK

DET: 86.98%
EDM: 87.24%

PP

DET: 19.96%
EDM: 17.11%

Additionally, since the Oilers have acquired Samsonov their PP went 18 for 90, exactly 20% (not sure how many SHG were allowed in that time frame). Noticeably better, but of course there are sample size issues. In any event, by my eye the Oilers were kind of unlucky on the PP since they acquired Samsonov; their stats could easily have been better. That could just be faulty memory (ie. remember the big saves, forget the lucky goals), but thought it worth mentioning in any case.

Numbers since March (not netted for SHG):

DETPP: 18.38% - 136 opp
EDMPP: 18.80% - 117 opp

DETPK: 85.83% - 127 opp
EDMPK: 86.67% - 120 opp

Admittedly the sample sizes are small here, are they too small to make conclusions?

All this to say that I think the special teams battle, while likely tilted in DET's favor, isn't as tilted as one might be led to believe. Of course the series is such a small run anything could happen, but based on expected value (assuming 50 PP and PK opps per team, and using the season long net numbers) one would expect EDM to be 0.127 goals better than DET on the PK, and DET to be 1.422 goals better than EDM on the PP (open question, am I doing this right by subtracting the DETPK% from EDM's PK%, and multipling by 50? Opposite for PP?) for a net differential of ~ 1.3 goals in DET's favor. And as mentioned above I think that's a bit closer due to Samsonov's addition.

11 Comments:

Anonymous Julian said...

You know, you guys might be suprised, but I don't recall Osbourne and Ludzik going quite this in-depth in their analysis of the Oilers-Wings series on The Score earlier this evening.


Good stuff, this is the reason I keep coming back here.

4/20/2006 11:44 pm  
Blogger Black Dog Hates Skunks said...

Good stuff - I took a look at the game recaps and did a post myself on the PP.

23 apiece head to head

Wings scored 7 on the PP.

Oil scored 4.

No gimme penalties

4/21/2006 7:12 am  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

Great post, speeds.

Seeing this, the overall special teams numbers aren't as daunting as I thought though, not even close. 1.3 goals in the series is a lot of difference, but it's also a lot less than I would have guessed intuitively. And as you say, you'd hope that Samsonov's presence takes a bite out of that. The Oilers PP results have been decent lately, and they've been hitting the ball really hard to boot, could easily have been better.

BTW: Just checked and since the beginning of March the Wings have scored no SH goals, and allowed 4 shorties against. The Oilers have scored 4 SH goals and allowed 1. I remember iwoc saying on AtoY that the Wings PP hasn't been all that terrific during the last month or two.

4/21/2006 7:28 am  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Another thing I was worried about was that the Oil take a lot more penalties than the Red Wings.

However, that's not really all that true.

This season - Total times shorthanded

Edm - 478
Det - 461

Which is 5.83 per game compared to 5.62 per game.

Ian

4/21/2006 9:07 am  
Blogger Black Dog Hates Skunks said...

who plays the point on the Wings' second unit? namflashback commented on my site that it was a forward.

anyone?

4/21/2006 9:14 am  
Blogger Dennis said...

Good job Mike...BTW...what did Ludzik and the other guy have to say about the Oilers series? I caught the SN preview and Kypreos had Det in 5, Watters had Det in 6, Stellick had the Oilers in 6 and Dreger took the Oilers in 7.

This post makes me feel better about the ST matchup, I must say.

One thing I'm realizing about this series though...I'm too geeked up about it and Oilers playoff hockey in general;) I couldn't sleep last night and the clock's going so slow today it's unreal.

4/21/2006 10:46 am  
Blogger Black Dog Hates Skunks said...

Didn't see Score Dennis but all four TSN guys picked Detroit.

Which makes me feel pretty good because the monkey generally does a better job then the lot of them anyhow.

4/21/2006 10:53 am  
Blogger speeds said...

I think the monkey picked DET, BDHS :)

4/21/2006 10:56 am  
Blogger Black Dog Hates Skunks said...

stupid monkey

4/21/2006 11:09 am  
Anonymous Julian said...

Osbourne was ranting about Roloson and how he definitely was not an upgrade over the previous guys, the only evidence he had was Edmonton's record at the time. Ludzik was a little more respectful, though I can't recall exactly what he said.

Suprisingly though, I think one of the two guys actually did pick Edmonton. Or maybe it was the host, the one who yells all the time... whatisname Steve Coulius or something.

4/21/2006 3:13 pm  
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