Tuesday, May 02, 2006

Special teams review

In a previous post I had said that Det would be expected to be ~ 1.3 goals better than the Oilers (assuming 50 PP and PK opps per team, and using the season long net numbers) on special teams in the series. That didn't account for the addition of Samsonov (at least, it only partially acounted for his addition)

In any case, here was the final tally:

Note - there were no SHG scored in the series.

DET PP - scored 8 goals, on 40 opps, for a 20% success rate.

EDM PP - scored 8 goals, on 37 opps, for a 21.6% success rate.

So special teams were a wash over the series, though as a team I would probably prefer DET's stats even though they ran at lower efficiency. Reason being is DET was on the PP for a total of 61:10 vs. EDM's 50:29, so that was 10 minutes extra that EDM was playing SH (obviously with a lower GF rate than at ES) compared to DET.

2 Comments:

Anonymous huffpuff said...

Good stuff.

Without your earlier analysis, it would have been surprising to see Edm kept pace with Det on the PP.

Looking at your PP minutes, are you sure you didn't accidentally flip the 2 teams around? My numbers say ~51 mins for Edm, ~61 mins for Det. This assumes that the goalies' toi data is correct on the event sheets, which I used for my estimation.

5/03/2006 5:29 pm  
Blogger Dennis said...

We'll see a different type of PP from the Sharks in Round 2 I'd imagine, ie things being ran down low through Joe T.

When I think about the ST battles from Round 1 I'm reminded that the Wings PP is the scariest I've ever seen. And it would've been a heckuva lot worse if Datsyuk had been 100% all series.

5/04/2006 2:12 pm  

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