Friday, June 09, 2006

Those Crazy Goalposts

A long time ago on OilFans Dennis threw out this theory that if you hit more goalposts than the other guys you usually lose the close games. I'm sure that most people thought he was batshit crazy, but it made sense to me.

Anyhow, some goalpost stats were thrown about in a comment on mudcrutch79's site the other day. Apparently they now put these on the play by play sheets at NHL.com. So I wrote a little program to strip all of that info off of said sheets, for the regular season and the playoffs. Which was surprisingly easy to do.

Some cool stuff, or at least I think so. At some point I'll post the list somewhere, but for now some bits and pieces:

* After two rounds of the playoffs the teams that had been helped out by the posts the most were EDM(12) and CAR(10) and BUF(9). If the nets were a couple of inches bigger each way ... none of these three teams would have still been alive by that point. (ANA had only been saved by the posts 6 times, but had only rung the iron four times themselves, so no room to bitch there. :-)

* In the four game sweep of the Rangers, Brodeur had help from the posts and crossbar a staggering 6 times. The iron only helped out Lundqvist once. His luck would turn in the next round.

* In the four game winning streak vs the Habs, Ward got help from the posts and crossbar 5 times, Huet only once.

And a couple of regular season tidbits:

* Jagr(12), Shanahan(12) and Staal(13) scored a lot of goals but also tagged a lot of iron. Hossa, Iginla and Naslund all had 11 posts in disappointing scoring campaigns. Most guys who scored a lot were in high single digits at goalposts and crossbars (Cheechoo with 9, Crosby 8, Ovechkin 7, Gionta 7, Gagne 9, Heatley 7, etc ... that seems about par for the course).

* A lot of guys should expect to score more next year based on some piss poor luck with the posts this season. Hossa(11), Sykora(12), Boyes(9), Erat(8) and some guy on the Blackhawks named Bourque with 9.

* Apparently Modano hit an absurd number of posts and crossbars in 03/04. This year he hit a post and a crossbar in the first couple of weeks ... then never hit another all year. Freaky.

* Selanne and Carter only hit 4, Torres and Bertuzzi only hit a pair each. Stillman only hit 1. The Sedins hit 14 between them (my script just grabs the surnames).

* If the goalposts are run by Satan (and I suspect that they are), then CuJo and M.A. Fleury sold their souls. And Belfour and Conklin should have. :D

* Poor Conklin, by the time the teams came back after the Olympic break, he had only been saved by the posts once (the OTL loss to New Jersey). The dice would start rolling his way though, he would get 3 posts behind him in the three game winning streak after the Oly's before the Roloson acquisition. Cujo had close to 40 in the same timespan, obviously Joseph had played far more minutes, still ...

* Roloson had a helluva streak of goalposts behind him early on as an Oiler, including 3 in the critical win against VAN. And obviously another streak again in the playoffs in the first two series.

2 Comments:

Blogger Black Dog Hates Skunks said...

That's some crazy shit - how about specific to the Oilers?

Rene Bourque I think is his name - rookie - he had 2 goals against the Oil in one game iirc.

6/09/2006 8:57 pm  
Blogger Dennis said...

That idea just came to me one winter when I was watching way too much hockey. I just had a thought that goals are so bloody rare that hitting a post is the hockey gods way of telling you that you almost had one but no...and that chance still counts somehow.

Nice to see my theory being supported by facts though.

6/11/2006 9:48 pm  

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