Wednesday, July 05, 2006

RFA offer sheets, CBA notes, and Mikhnov

Some random thoughts:

(1) RFA offer sheets

Ahh, one of my favorite topics. A couple of posts down RiversQ suggested EDM take a run at Spezza. The more things change, the more they stay the same

This year I'm a bit more leery about EDM throwing out an offer sheet. I think the risk is higher this year, because I think the odds of EDM being as good this year as I thought they would be last year (division winners or a close 2nd to the Canucks) probably aren't as good. How bad could this team be if they can't find any D help, and maybe Horcoff, Smyth and Roloson get hurt for chunks of the year? Could this club finish in the bottom 5 of the league? Bottom 10? All of a sudden that's a pretty good pick you'd be giving up (though you'd obviously have the player you bid on, which would help you out) as RFA compensation - assuming you bid on a guy that cost more than 2 mil.

The teams for which RFA bidding should be most advantageous are the teams that expect to be picking 20-30 OV in the first round of next season's draft. Reason being that the value of said picks is obviously much lower. As an example, If EDM gives up the 11th overall pick as part of the compensation package for a 4 mil RFA, CAL giving up a 1st, 2nd and 3rd isn't of equivalent value if CAL's picks are 25, 55, and 85 OV. The draft pick compensation of of much less value if the team doing the RFA signing is going to pick 20-30 in the first round.

Having said all that, I think there are some interesting RFA targets this summer, though IMO a team like CAL may get better value this way than EDM (in particular, on a bid for Bergeron from BOS to play on their top 2 lines, giving CAL a respectable top 6 of:


I'm not sure if there's as obvious a target as Spezza was last summer, and still no one bid on him. Anyways, here as some potential RFA targets, leaguewide:

Roy, Bergeron (as I said though, this is a guy for CAL, would be a pretty good fit for them IMO. Even though they'd probably need to dump Hamrlik's salary to make room for him, they could probably get a couple picks back to make up for the compensation costs they'd have to pay to acquire Bergeron - though it's probably all moot as BOS would likely match), Svatos, Zherdev, Horton, Brown, Hamhuis, Vermette, Pitkanen, Stajan

(2) You may have noticed that I skipped some notable RFA's in the last section with regards to guys who may be worth signing to an offer sheet. Players who have filed for arbitration are NOT eligible to sign RFA offer sheets any more this summer. What might this mean for the Oilers?

(a) If Lowe feels like getting into the RFA raiding game but is concerned about retaliation this summer, only Lupul is left among RFA's.

(b) forget about RFA offer sheets for the likes of Tallinder(BUF), Liles(COL), Bouwmeester(FLA), and Van Ryn(FLA). They are now ineligible.

At least, that how I read section 10.2(a)(i)(B) of the new CBA. I'm not a lawyer though, so MC (or anyone), please correct me if I'm mistaken.

(3) I have seen it mentioned that EDM should keep Schremp up this year if he's borderline, because it will cost them a year of service. This line of thinking is incorrect, as Schremp will be a UFA in the summer of 2013 whether he plays in the NHL all year, AHL all year, or some combination thereof (barring a CBA change next negotiation, or Schremp being non-qualified at some point before summer 2013).

(4) With regards to arbitration, Ireland mentioned in today's EDM Journal that Horcoff had filed, and the Oilers were waiting for word on whether there other 3 RFA's (Hemsky, Stoll, Lupul) would file as well. As we've found out Hemsky and Stoll did but Lupul is NOT arbitration eligible having signed at ages 18-20 and only having completed 3 pro seasons.

(5) I believe I've read somewhere that the signing deadline for Mikhnov is July 15th. Has anyone else heard this, and if so, do you have a corroborating link?

I had been concerned, having flipped briefly through the CBA, that Mikhnov would be a UFA come next summer, not bound to his rookie cap, due to section 9.1(b) of the CBA. Section 9.1(b) says that any player sho signs at age 25 for the first time is a UFA (not bound to his rookie cap). For Mikhnov, that would be next summer (he would probably only be 24 at the time he signs, but the CBA mentions in section 9.2 that "age" in this context refers to a player's age on Sept 15th of the year he signs, regardless of his age on the day he signs. Having read more carefully though, section 9.1(c) says that Mikhnov will have to sign a one year entry level deal in any of the next 4 summers, even if he doesn't sign with EDM this summer and goes UFA( though in this case he would be a UFA bound to his rookie cap).


Blogger RiversQ said...

Hey speeds, explain the Schremp thing again. It doesn't really make sense to me. If he spends the year in the A, do the Oilers lose a year of service or not?

I don't really follow why Calgary would be better off signing Bergeron than Edmonton would. He's a soon to be elite forward if not already. They can make it work if he'd sign a deal for a cap number of $4.99MM or less.

7/05/2006 11:22 pm  
Blogger speeds said...

you get a player for either 7 years of service, or until age 27 (provided they have at least 4 years NHL experience)

So if Schremp had played last season he'd have been a UFA at age 26. Now he'll be a UFA at age 27 (provided he has at least 4 years service), if he never plays a game in the next 7 years in the minors, or if he plays 3 years in the AHL and then graduates to the NHL and plays for 4 years.

This is of some importancee with older guys that make it, perhaps Winchester and Mikhnov - you're gonna get at least 4 years out of those guys before they hit UFA.

7/05/2006 11:31 pm  
Blogger RiversQ said...

A-ha. Now I'm picking up what you're putting down. I forgot all about the age factor.

7/05/2006 11:35 pm  
Blogger speeds said...

with regards to Bergeron, I get what you're saying, I just mean that:

(a) the marginal upgrade from X to Bergeron is probably higher for CAL than it would be on the Oilers roster.

(b) the compensation may be worth less coming from the Flames than coming from the Oilers.

Also, makes only a cent difference but as written in the CBA the bands are up to and including 1 mil, 2 mil, 3 mil, 4 mil, 5mil.

A bid of 5 mil would cost 2 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd in comp, 5 mil and 1 cent would cost 4 1sts.

I agree that the 5 mil bid is you best chance at Bergeron, I still think BOS would match but there's enough of a chance that they wouldn't that it's probably worth it. IF you think Bergeron's THAT good a player.

7/05/2006 11:36 pm  
Blogger speeds said...

with regards to the last point, the money is tied to the cap increase (ie if the cap goes up 10 % then all the compensation level ranges go up 10% as well)

From the wording of the CBA I'm not sure if that started this year. I think it starts next year - ie for this year it's the same as written in the CBA, and starting next year it moves, but I could be wrong in which case the compensation levels are ~10 higher this year than listed in the CBA.

7/05/2006 11:40 pm  
Blogger RiversQ said...

I think Bergeron could play 4th most ES minutes among forwards on this team. He'd crank the PP as well. He's well worth it IMO. What would it be anyways? Five years before he would be lost to UFA. I think it's worth it if you can get him for $4.99MM/yr.

If it's not and Boston matches? Let's be honest, Jeremy Jacobs can go fuck himself. What that guy has done to a storied franchise like the Bruins is almost unfathomable. I say almost only because the Blackhawks still exist.

7/05/2006 11:54 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

Thanks speeds, I've been hoping you'd post something on this subject.

I've been wondering about this as well:

If Lowe feels like getting into the RFA raiding game but is concerned about retaliation this summer, only Lupul is left among RFA's.

I guess that once we see a list of the players that are vulnerable to a RFA offer sheet we may see some opportunities.

I think there is an overshoot of the cap allowed in the summertime, until the dust settles. Is that $48M speeds?

And if so wouldn't it be possible to box N.J in with RFA offer sheets to Gomez ... then Gionta if that doesn't work ... then Martin if that doesn't work. I mean in the N.J case an offer sheet on Gomez alone might force Lou's hand.

I'm not sure about who is available to be tendered offer sheets, is there a list somewhere?

In any case, it's an opportunity that surely somebody will explore.

7/06/2006 1:02 am  
Anonymous lowetide said...

The situation at RW got a little muddy for me when they dealt for Lupul.

NOW this team needs a veteran 2-way RW (which will drive HF crazy) I think in order to give balance to 1-4 RW's.

If we know anything about MacT it's that Hemsky AND Lupul will have games where they are getting 4line minutes.

Elevating Mikhnov vs. elevating a veteran with 7-10 years NHL experience is a no-brainer if I follow MacT's processes.

So imo Mikhnov is less likely to make the club now as a RW than he was a week ago.

Good stuff on the rfa's too, I guess that old geezer Muckler still has something going on.

7/06/2006 6:39 am  
Anonymous namflashback said...

even more muddy with Winchester already on a one-way contract. is he a lock on the roster, well -- he made NHL money last year playing in the A. So Winchester and Mikhnov rotating on the 4line? Not likely. I'm with you LT, Lowe will want a more experienced RW as the spare forward to sub-in for either Lupol or Winch/Mikhonov.

Or Winchester is going to be trade bait? He did get "shown" during the playoffs.

NJD is the best target, because the ability to match is very limited. Gomez went to Arbi, so offer a modest uppage to Gionta, and a full run on Martin.

Or, help Lou another way -- take Rafalski's 4M off his hands? MAB for Rafalski?

7/06/2006 12:20 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think there is an overshoot of the cap allowed in the summertime, until the dust settles. Is that $48M speeds?

Yeah Vic, you can overspend up to 10% of the cap in the offseason.


7/06/2006 12:21 pm  
Anonymous namflashback said...

still, I saw NJ's # at $41M + $4.5M for Gomez + $3.5M for Gionta. We are bumping. Paul Martin was a + defenceman, 46 points, decent ice-time. He is an RFA. Lou can't afford him or some of his other defenceman.

7/06/2006 1:08 pm  
Blogger Asiaoil said...

The NJD true cap number will be lower this year though because of the deadweight Malakov and Mogilny deals right? Plus McGillis is in the minors? Man that team is a mess and Lou clearly cannot be termed a cap wizard

7/06/2006 4:02 pm  
Anonymous namflashback said...

a bunch of Lou's problems were from before the new CBA i.e. Madden at $4M.

I thought the Malakov, Mogilny, and McGillis deals all sat on the cap until complete.

Makes anything contract over 4 years in length scary for anyone over the age of 31.

7/06/2006 4:13 pm  

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