Tuesday, September 12, 2006

About damn time !!!

here we go:

Sportsnet reports PHI has signed VAN F Ryan Kesler to a one year offer sheet.

23 Comments:

Blogger RiversQ said...

Leave it to Clarke to break the ice on this one. It's almost so half-hearted you have to think it's a conspiracy. The NHL gets to blow a hole in a MLB-style collusion case based mostly on hearsay and Nonis gets a 2nd round pick for a player he may have had trouble signing.

It's amazing how young the Flyers will be at centre this year with or without Kesler. The depth chart there at centre is probably:

Forsberg
Carter
Richards
Kesler
Umberger

Forsberg is probably the best player in the league when healthy, but after him they're pretty green. Nedved and Cullen are also there, but I expect Cullen will play the wing and Nedved might too. If he even plays.

Vancouver would be so thin at centre if this happened, that
Nonis may be forced to bite the bullet. Sedin/Morrison/Linden? Ouch.

9/12/2006 3:28 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

Good for Clarke. And I'm with you on this issue speeds, it's about damn time that somebody started this.

9/12/2006 3:45 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

1.9 Million, and last I checked Philly wasn't too far under the cap. Makes you wonder what Clarke is thinking, and if he's just doing this to drive up the price on Kesler and make life for Nonis that much more difficult. Damaging the competition by raising them closer to the cap?

9/12/2006 4:40 pm  
Anonymous grace said...

Canucks have said they'll match it. They won't be happy given they gave Kesler a "take it or leave it" deal for almost half the amount, but they're going to match.

9/12/2006 4:57 pm  
Anonymous Dominic said...

Damaging the competition by raising them closer to the cap?

Are the Canucks really their competition, though? This just looks like Clarke's doing it for the sake of doing it. I'm going to enjoy seeing Vancouver pay Kesler that kind of money.

Lupul probably would've been a better target 2 days ago.

9/13/2006 9:43 am  
Blogger Loxy said...

Have we ever traded with Clarke and used the term "Future Considerations"?

Ahem..

9/13/2006 10:38 am  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

I don't think that Lupul necessarily would have been a better target. The compensation for a player in Kesler's price range is only a 2nd rounder, if I remember speeds previous comments correctly. So clearly he targetted the guy for that reason.

And while I'm generally loathe to give credit to any Vancouver player because of the way that their internet fans are. It is extraordinarily rare for a 21 year old centre to see that kind of responsibility and still end up at evens in EV+/-. And he doesn't look as big as he's listed, but I imagine he'll get stronger. Not much sizzle to his game either.

I mean I'm sure it wouldn't have happened if Morrison wasn't playing hurt and Linden's legs didn't stop working. But still, he played more icetime against Iggy and Sakic than any other Nuck forward and didn't get murdered doing it. Granted probably not too much of that without Ohlund I'm sure, and probably not much starting in his own end either. Still, the kid is 20 freaking 1. He's gonna be a player. Clarke usually makes good bets at this sort of thing.

I hope Nonis doesn't match ... but going by Grace's comment and Nonis' other moves this summer ... I suspect that he will if he can.

9/13/2006 10:56 am  
Anonymous Jack said...

This is why I love Bobby Clarke. He knows Vancouver has to match it, since they almost don't have enough NHL calibre forwards as it is, thus putting them at a disadvantage. I truly believe he did this just to make another team worse. What an asshole (in a good way).

Granted, I'd be pissed if he did this to an Oilers player, but he didn't, so I think it's great.

9/13/2006 11:16 am  
Anonymous dominic said...

Would Lowe have given Lupul 2.99 for one year? Maybe, but it sure would've hurt us. What's the compensation for stealing an RFA under 3 mil?

9/13/2006 11:23 am  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

1st and a 3rd dominic


speeds

9/13/2006 12:21 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

1st and a 3rd dominic


speeds

9/13/2006 12:21 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

1st and a 3rd dominic


speeds

9/13/2006 12:21 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Let's not forget to say how Kesler pounded Iginla last year either;)

Vic laid out the most likely reasons why Kesler saw tough min but at the end of the day what counts is that he did especially well in that situation given his age and lack of experience so the kid's going the right way towards being a shutdown guy.

So yeah while maybe Clarkie knew this and it was a panic move considering Primeau's gonna call it quits, it doesn't show much foresight on his part considering that up front the Flyers have a youth movement going on and when it comes times for the Richards, Carter's and Umberger's to re-up then maybe some team closer to the cap floor then the cap ceiling might put the Flyers finanical balls in a vise. Of course maybe if you look closely some big pacts will be coming off the books once those kids are up, ie Rathje and Hillbilly Hatch, so maybe Philly might have the room to match said offers.

RQ makes a very interesting point though regarding a conspiracy theory where Clarkie makes somewhat of an initial half hearted offer sheet volley to quash any potential collusionary whispers. The one thing E1 can agree upon though is that A: it sucks some valuable coin away from the Dys who were playing the hardest of hardball with Kesler and B: it drives up the price of the comparables which is bad for everyone. Unless of course you're a 4th liner who's just looking to make the minimum.

Interesting the Philly has his sick little connection to the Canucks prospects though. They grabbed up Umberger once Van balked at his demands now they're making a play for young Kesler.

Dennis

9/13/2006 12:28 pm  
Blogger Black Dog Hates Skunks said...

Clarke took his shot and it was a reasonable one even though the Canucks will just match it.

The big thing is the arbitration comp issue - I will bet that in the next couple of years we see a lot of 10 goal scorers getting nice awards and then being set free. While some GMs are going on about the salary inflation the fact is there is only so much money out there now. That is a simple fact. There is only a finite amount of money to go around and with most teams at or nearly at their budgets if the 10 goal scorers of the world expect hefty raises in the next few years as a result of this I think they are fooling themselves.

Be a lot of UFA 10 goal scorers methinks.

9/13/2006 12:46 pm  
Anonymous Jack said...

I know this is completely off topic, but why do you call the Cannucks the "Dys"? I don't get it.

9/13/2006 12:53 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"He knows Vancouver has to match it, since they almost don't have enough NHL calibre forwards as it is, thus putting them at a disadvantage."

The reason Nonis has to match it has little to do with the calibre of forwards the Canucks have, for two reasons:

1) The Canucks are quite deep at forward. As is, there is only one roster spot available for a new player - likely to be the new RW on the Sedin line. Every other position is being filled by 'NHL calibre players'.

2) Even if they Canucks chose not to match the Philly offer, they could simply use the $1M to sign one of the many UFA still available.

9/13/2006 1:09 pm  
Anonymous dominic said...

1st and a 3rd? Isn't that what Lowe spent on getting and signing an over-the-hill goaltender to a slightly inflated contract?

I'd spend a first and a third if it meant I could get Lupul in my system, even if his contract had to be inflated a bit.

9/13/2006 1:33 pm  
Anonymous Jack said...

I don't really want to make a big thing of this, but I disagree on both points.

"1) The Canucks are quite deep at forward. As is, there is only one roster spot available for a new player - likely to be the new RW on the Sedin line. Every other position is being filled by 'NHL calibre players'."

I figure the top 6 would be Naslund, Morrison, Bulis, the twins, and probably Cooke. After that, you have guys like Linden, Pyatt, and a bunch of AHLers (Green, Burrows, Rypien, Bouck). Oh, and Chouinard who managed to hit the 30 point plateau after only 8 seasons of pro hockey. Kesler is going to have to play a big role for them next season, unless they plan on playing the Sedin line 24 minutes a night.


"2) Even if they Canucks chose not to match the Philly offer, they could simply use the $1M to sign one of the many UFA still available."

The many UFAs such as...?

Derek MacKenzie, Erik Rasmussen, Justin Papineau, Clark Wilm, Boyd Devereaux? Maybe Yanic Perereault could be a decent option, but there aren't many 3rd line centers left. Although it's entirely possible I've missed somebody.

9/13/2006 2:06 pm  
Blogger Bank Shot said...

I don't think any GM will throw out offer sheets just to try and drive up a player's salary. I don't think there would be a quicker way to get blackballed then that.

The offer for Kesler was a ridiculous amount given his accomplishments, and Black Dog is right that it won't affect the market for 10 goal scorers. Other GMs can probably live with that fact.

Someone offering Lupul 2.9 Mil would just piss all the other GMs off as there'd be pretty much no chance that Lowe wouldn't match at that price, and it would just be pushing the cost of doing business up. A real offer sheet for Lupul would probably have to be near the 4 million mark.

I thought it was a well played move by Clarke as Kesler was a perfect target for a bunch of reasons. He still has upside, his compensaton is only a second rounder, it's easy to overpay him without breaking the bank, and Nonis is backed against the cap.
Here's hoping Nonis rolls over and the Canucks get weaker.

9/13/2006 3:43 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I haven't entirely digested this, but I think I like this move a lot, especially if Kesler's qualifier offer next year is used successfully as a comparable by players either in negotiation or arbitration. If a move like Clarke's forces all GMs league wide to spend a bigger chunk on their bottom end then the stars salary should be squeezed a little harder and kept in check. Sounds more stable to me. >shrug<

I gotta say I've always hated Clarke but I just loved his reaction. Great stuff!

Course, now maybe the RFAs should just wait until all the UFAs have all been signed and the budgets stretched to where they become an attractive target to poach. Might be some fun musical chairs a week before season starts!

oilswell

9/13/2006 10:31 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

Why all the hate for Clarke, oilswell? I mean it's not Bobby's fault that Roger got cancer. ;)

I'm not sure that I have a stable sense of the implications of this. The arbs comparable (or the threat of it) is the obvious factor. This is that arbitration tends to flatter the guys who register good counting numbers but bring less of other things to the table. And a guy like Kesler is sort of the opposite. And these are the obvious targets for an RFA offer sheet. It seems a bit like both ends are squeezing against the middle, there seems to be inflationary pressure coming in waves for every type of player (first high end forwards and goalies, then high end to mid level D this summer) yet the overall level of inflation is controlled, so this can't go on forever.

My early feeling is that it's a good thing. Guys like Dumont have ended up with a bit less. Guys like Kesler a shade more. Just seems fairer to me.

And lastly, what was Clarke's reaction? I missed that.

9/14/2006 11:39 pm  
Blogger Black Dog Hates Skunks said...

Clarke's reaction - something along the lines of "Whoever doesn't like it can eat me!"

He threw around some curses, called the whole complaining about it "a load of crap", etc.

Clarkie may be a jerk but he keeps things interesting.

And you know what - he wants to WIN! More then anything.

So what does he care what people think.

9/15/2006 10:15 am  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Vic: good points, I think the arb threat is important and there should be a few agents around the league that can squeeze a few more dollars out even if its not obvious; I can't imagine a wave of inflationary pressure on 3rd liners, which is why I tentatively like the poach attempt.

Some of Clarke's reaction can be found on TSN.

oilswell

9/15/2006 9:31 pm  

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