Monday, November 13, 2006

Shooting Areas

No guarantees on the accuracy of this, and as always common sense should be applied. The dots represent the chances of a shot going in from that point on the ice. The bigger the dot, the higher percentage of them went in from there in thr 05/06 regular season. Click on the image to enlarge it if you want.

I drew the triangle on there in red. That's the age old hard definition of a scoring chance. Maybe doesn't apply as well to NHL shooters though.

I drew on a yellow ice cream cone shape as well. Because I like ice cream.

I've seen coaches log sheets with some crazy shapes drawn on them before, presumably representing different scoring areas. Some are paint-by-numbers complex, most are simpler. Three different sized circles inside each other, all of them butting up against the goal line ... that always seemed better to me. I dunno though, even a shot from far out can be more than just a chance to score on the shot, it's the chance on the rebound or deflection too. Tough to peg by just this.

The sharp angle shots go in a lot more nowadays, the shots from outside the dot, as Ferraro would say. To my eye Andy Murray's teams always liked those shots a lot. And Mario is probably the guy who really exploited that area the most, not unlike the way Gretzky showed us that "behind the net" wasn't a bad place to make a play from either.

Obviously shots from almost on the goal line have a great chance. There aren't many of those in a game though. Lots from the low slot though.

The other thing is that shots down the middle, the high slot area, really do have a good chance of going in, but teams in this era don't give up too many of those any more.

8 Comments:

Blogger MikeP said...

"The other thing is that shots down the middle, the high slot area, really do have a good chance of going in, but teams in this era don't give up too many of those any more."

My kneejerk reaction would be that teams don't give up a lot of those because they're getting better at blocking and getting in those shooting lanes, and the ones that do get through have a good chance of going in because they've either been redirected, the goalie's been screened, or both.

Maybe I'm way wrong.

11/13/2006 5:42 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

Ya, I hadn't thought of the blocking thing, but makes sense. Certainly agree on the 'getting in the shooting lanes' thing though. You hear so many teams talking about keeping the opposition to the outside, really a popular thing in recent years. It seems like a lot of defending teams are in no hurry to get the puck back, they seem happy to just contain the opposition to the outside, limit the shots to that area, and take their chances with rebounds or deflections.

11/13/2006 6:01 pm  
Blogger danielchapman said...

One glaring thing that comes instantly to me is that the Oilers have reconfigured their powerplay to garner shots from a lower percentage area. Looking at where Stoll traditionally shoots from and comparing it to last season when Pronger would play a lot at the tip of the cone versus the high points...

To add to that we start putting Hemmer on the right boards and our best triggerman (Sykora)as a result gets shifted to another statistically low percentage area.

Makes you really wonder how long Simpson can keep his job.

The only reason we are running this configuration that makes any sense is to load Stoll up on the left point. Judging by that chart, its a piss poor strategy.

dynastydays

11/13/2006 6:50 pm  
Blogger Slipper said...

Not only are they blocking those outside shots, but they're limiting the time a player has to get one off cleanly. It takes more time to wind up a real dangerous shot from outside, and if a defenderis rela aggressive he can disrupt it. I think about that whenever I see a team aggressive on the puck during a penalty kill, like The Hurricanes executed against the Oilers in the finals.

I'm guessing that a majority of them occur on the PP because a shot from that distance occurs either when entering the O zone, without traffic,and is essentially handing the puck over. Or else once puck possession is held deeper in the O zone, then puck is fed back to the point, whick is a fairly risky play at even strength.

I like this chart Vic. During the first period of the CBJ game there was one shift in particular, Horcoff vs. Nash, where the Oilers held sustained pressure and has three quality scoring chances before getting caught dig tired and seeing a 2 on 1 break the other way. It had me thinking that if a person can document what players are creating scoring opportunities and against whom, a person could also find a system to judge the quality of the chances and at what rate certain players are making good of them. In the same that I'm comforted seeing A break against the Oilers being driven by a snake bit Dvorak, I'm sure in certain situations a coach would take advantage of a match-up where he'll get out worked but may still out score.

It'd be interesting from a coaching perspective. In fact real time graphing of puck location, possession, and shot attempts would be super cool.

11/13/2006 7:18 pm  
Blogger Andy Grabia said...

One glaring thing that comes instantly to me is that the Oilers have reconfigured their powerplay to garner shots from a lower percentage area.

It'd be interesting from a coaching perspective. In fact real time graphing of puck location, possession, and shot attempts would be super cool.

I couldn't agree more, and I will shameless whore out the post where I said so. There are alot of similar points that I made in that behometh, including the fact that a PP strategy of shots from the point is a low percentage strategy, and the fact that the NHL does an awful job--at least publicly--of publishing shot location information.

Quick question, Vic. How are you determining location? Doesn't the NHL only list shots by distance from the backboard?

11/14/2006 1:13 am  
Blogger Andy Grabia said...

I couldn't agree more, and I will *shamelessly* whore out the post where I said so.

Spelling error. Sorry.

11/14/2006 1:15 am  
Blogger Slipper said...

This Oiler PP doesn't have a second option. I assume every team in the NHL use tape and scout their opponents PP hard, ecspecially divisional opponents. They seem to have a pretty simple read on the Oiler PP; prevent the cross ice pass, and passively defend while the Oilers' PP'ers play pong on the side boards. Every time the half board attacker feeds the puck to the player behind the goal line they're trying to bait the high defenders to collapse so they can hit Hemsky and he can feed the one-timer. The only problem is that nobody is biting, they're reading it all the way.

I'd sure like to see a more aggressive man advantage and a few more stategies out there. The answer isn't new personnel executing the same garbage. Why doesn't the man down low tap it around the net and then crash along with the guy on the half boards? Atleast once in awhile to prvode a little variety and shake up the defenders? I recall a point last season where the PK'ers were cheating Hemsky's pass because they obviously didn't beleive he was a threat to shoot. Eventually (I mean it took a long time) Hemsky fires it from the slot and catches everyone sleeping. What happens the next time he has the puck on PP? The PK'ers cheat shot and he hit the cross ice one-timer. I'm sure some think it can't be that easy, but I just can't really beleive it's that difficult.

Eventually one must wonder what is or isn't getting in these guy's head because in more than one type situation they seem to revert to the same ineffective BS, over and over.

11/14/2006 2:23 pm  
Blogger JavaGeek said...

Just wanted to say, that's a much nicer diagram than the ones I made about shot location.

Glad people are using all the data that's available to us!

11/16/2006 2:28 pm  

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