Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Before things start up, UFA's I'd target were I the GM

Pondering trade possibilities is interesting, but with no real information to know whether they have potential it's a pretty fruitless exercise (as is this whole post, but it's kinda fun).

This is pretty quickly drawn together, but I wanted to get something down before deals start to happen. Nonetheless, here's a rough guide of what I'd try to do on the UFA market to start preparing the roster for next season:

Sign:

D Hejda - looked pretty good to me, I'll guess he'd cost something like 3.2 over 2, or 5 over 3? I could well be low here, but I'm sure that will apply to everyone I suggest. It'll be interesting to see if CLB snaps Hejda up if EDM doesn't re-sign him before the deadline, maybe Howson was a fan?

D Tarnstrom - I don't know if I'd actually do this, but it sounds like the Oilers are going to and frankly I like the idea (depending on money). I'd rather sign Tarnstrom and Hannan than sign Souray, if the money is even close to the same, for example. Though if you signed Hannan you probably wouldn't be signing Hejda, unless you were also trading Smith, and on and on. I'll estimate Tarnstrom at 4.5 mil over 2 years. If Tjarnqvist looks like he'll be healthy going forward, I'd probably snag him instead, largely because I think a team will be able to get him at a cheap price.

F Nagy - Nagy could be that skill guy Lowe is talking about to play with Hemsky, though maybe that leaves that line too soft? In any case, he would seemingly be a good fit for Hemsky on the PP. I'd guess he'll cost 4.5 a year to sign for 3 years? Too much/little?

F Zubrus/Dvorak/Johnson/Bulis/Fedotenko - I would probably want to find the cheapest guy out of this group to help fill in the forward spots, though you can make the case that these are more to 6/9 forwards. Depending on the guy I would imagine one of these guys would cost you 2-3.5 mil a year, depending on which guy and how the market goes.

Dvorak seemed to like EDM, maybe they could bring him back without too much trouble? He had a nice year in STL though, maybe he's gonna stay there with a good thing going on? In any case I would imagine he'll get something like

These moves would leave EDM with a lineup something like:

Nagy-Horcoff-Hemsky
Moreau-Stoll-Pisani
Torres-Pouliot-Lupul
Thoresen-Reasoner-Dvorak

Nilsson
Schremp
Cogliano
Jacques
Petersen (if re-signed)

Smith-Hejda
Staios-Smid
Greene-Tarnstrom
Gilbert
Grebeshkov
Roy

The cap value on this team would be ~ 45 mil, so actually that leaves them room to spend more via UFA if they so desire. Perhaps they include Lupul in a trade for a D with picks and prospects and fill the forward void with another guy from the group of 5 I listed above, which might bring the salary up to ~47 mil or so? Or maybe you sign Smyth instead of the player from the Dvorak group? Or maybe you sign Smyth instead of Nagy, and spend more on one of the two UFA D than before? Lots of ways to tinker with that basic plan if you have an extra 2 or 3 mil to spend.

This would give EDM a halfway decent lineup, with still a ton of chips to play with in trades and upgrading certain positions. It's not the 87 Oilers though, and this is going to be, again, a pretty tough division...

3 Comments:

Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

I like the B-list guys you have there would be the attainable guys that could help to right the ship in short order: Zubrus/Dvorak/Johnson/Bulis/Fedotenko
Of course that would leave a plethora of prospects in Springfield, so it doesn't seem likely.

Sensibly the Oilers are going to be playing kids on the back end anyways. Like it or not, it's rebuild time. Best to stay with the plan methinks.

Guys with something to prove might be the best options. I think that the Oilers will be willing to spend on salary, but not on term, so they're left with this crowd anyways. Of this group, personally I like Yashin, Calder, Nagy or Guerin on big ticket one year deals, with a view towards flipping them at the deadline.

6/20/2007 4:02 pm  
Blogger YKOil said...

I still like Tanabe.

Long-term signing for less than the rest because everyone thinks of what he should have been and not what he is.

The guy is only 25 but he already has 400+ games played and he really picked it up last year in terms of defensive play. Good numbers against mid-range competition.

What not to like?

6/20/2007 10:17 pm  
Blogger speeds said...

Vic:

I don't dislike the idea of signing a guy like Nagy to a one year deal, pumping his stats, and moving him at the deadline for a solid return, but the reason I picked Nagy specifically is that I think he'll be a player the market might well undervalue and thus I wouldn't mind signing him to keep around for a couple of seasons.

We can agree that the moves I suggested there are probably not what will end up happening. We don't know what trade possibilities are out there, so there's really no way for us to know what is the best strategy. If you knew you could move 3 prospects and 3 1sts for a top 4 D and a top 6 F, both relatively cheaply signed or RFA's, then your UFA targets are different than if you need to UFA shop for depth.

YK: I don't have a good read on Tanabe, have seen very little of him recently and heard just as little.

6/21/2007 12:36 am  

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