Monday, October 01, 2007

There's no reason for Gagner to not end up signed today

I've read in the papers that this may be a difficult signing for the Oilers, but I just don't see how.



For the Oilers, signing Gagner is a huge relief, in that you don't have to worry (however small that worry may be) about re-entry in 2 years.



For Gagner, entering the NHL a year or two earlier than projected has huge financial ramifications down the line with regards to getting his cheap years out of the way as early as possible.



He will be paid the cap, with the max in signing bonuses (10% of the rookie max, I believe, in this CBA). The only item of contention regards the bonus structure. Gagner would of course like to receive max bonuses, but given the talent projected in 2009 it's no guarantee he'd get more in bonuses 2 years from now, and even if he does he could potentially be sacrificing 2 NHL seasons (more likely 1) and thus it's probably not worth haggling for much more, if any more, than that which the 6 OV pick ordinarily receives.



From the Oilers perspective they would like to minimize bonuses due to their cap implications. Since the Oilers aren't tight to the cap, and are allowed to go over the cap for bonuses even if they were, I can't see them being overly concerned with Gagner's bonuses. If Gagner happens to hit the bonuses, he'll have been worth the money and it will be one less player they'd have to trade for during the year to be competitive.



I'd be surprised if this doesn't get done today, as to me it makes sense for both sides to sign.

12 Comments:

Blogger Andy Grabia said...

That sounds way too logical and easy.

10/01/2007 11:39 am  
Blogger RiversQ said...

Yeah, I suppose you might as well sign the kid. I have serious doubts that he'll be a strong contributor this year, but he's shown enough that you don't want him holding you for ransom down the road. Also, if the value isn't there after 9 games, you just send him back and save the cap space.

Incidentally, too bad these high picks get paid so much right off the hop. Unless you're Sidney Crosby, you probably won't cover the bet in yrs 1 and 2. Meanwhile, the 2nd and 3rd rounders come in at a bargain and have a pretty good shot at contributing much more than $500-600K.

10/01/2007 11:58 am  
Blogger namflashback said...

and so it was. no reason not to. and they did.

10/01/2007 3:33 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

You called that one, speeds. I think that this is the best time to get a first rounder signed. They did the same with Schremp, at his first camp with all indicators pointing to him making the big club.

When did Hemsky sign his first contract? Anyone recall? For some reason I don't think it was until his second camp.

Also speeds, a couple of questions, since you the guy on the blogosphere who is most likely to know this stuff off the top of his head:

* If a player clears waivers now, does that mean that they are waiver exempt for the rest of the season?

* If a player on a two way contract is waived to the minors is later recalled to the NHL, and he is claimed on waivers by another team, does the prior club still pay half of his salary?

10/02/2007 6:51 am  
Blogger allan said...

From article 13 of the CBA (man, I wish I could copy and paste...):

13.2 The "Playing Season Waiver Period" shall begin on the twelffh day prior to the start of the Regular Season.... Subject to the provisions of this Article, the rights to the services of a Player may be Loaned to a club of another league, upon fulfillment of the following....

(a) Regular Waivers were requested and cleared during the Playing Season Waiver Period; and

(b) the Player has not played in ten or more NHL Games cumulative since Regular Waivers on him were last cleared, and more than thirty days cumulative on an NHL roster have not passed since Regular Waivers on him were last cleared.


So once he's cleared waivers, he's exempt from regular waivers the year, unless he's on an NHL roster for 30 days or 10 games.

The re-entry waivers question is less clear.

13.3 Re-Entry Waivers. A Player who required Regular Waivers may not be Recalled without first clearing Re-Entry Waivers, in accordance with Section 50.9(g) of this Agreement.

50.9(g) Minor League Compensation. Neither the salaries nor signing bonuses paid to minor league Players shall be counted against a Club's Upper Limit or the Players' Share. For a Player on a One-Way NHL Contract or a Two-Way Contract with a Minor League Salary and compensation that could be earned in excess of the following amounts:
....
2007-2007: $100,000
....
the following rules shall apply:
....
(ii) To the extent the Player does require Waivers to be Loaned to a minor league affiliate, he cannot be Loaned or Recalled to the NHL parent Club during the same League Year without also clearing a new Re-Entry Waiver procedure, pursuant to which the Player can be claimed by another NHL Club for fifty percent of the contract's remaining amounts to be paid, with the balance to be paid by and charged to the waiving NHL Club....


If I'm reading that right, when a player on a two-way deal is claimed on waivers, the claiming team has to pay half of his NHL salary, since a player claimed on waivers has to be added to the NHL roster.

There's also a re-entry waiver exemption for "veteran minor league players," who have played more than 320 pro games in North America, but fewer than 80 NHL games in the last 2 years or 40 in the last season. I assume that's how Toby Petersen could be recalled last year without clearing re-entry waivers.

On the upside for the Oilers, Patrick Thoresen is on a two-way deal (any player under 25 has to sign a two way, entry-level deal), and the maximun minor-league compensation for recent drafts is well under the $100,000 cutoff (Article 9), so he'll be exempt from re-entry waivers.

10/02/2007 9:06 am  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

Wow, thanks Allan, good stuff.

I think that this is a good move. Most teams are far too busy trying to resolve their own roster situations right now. The good teams only have one or two spots open and are trying to pare it down. The bad teams have openings everywhere and are seeing salvation in the eyes of every kid who shone in his last exhibition game. I mean honestly, who gets claimed off of waivers at this time of year? Damn rare in any case.

On the other hand, if GMs had a do-over card that they could play on November first, then a shitload of guys would get picked up. I think waiving players right now is very safe ... in two weeks, not so much.

If the Oilers fringe players were a roll of the dice then Thoresen would be a seven. Return on that wager isn't high, because it's a safe bet, but you know what you're getting.

Most Oiler fans know that this team needs a P.Stastny AND a Beauchemin to come out of nowhere. They just do. I find it hard to believe that MacTavish doesn't realize it. Hopefully that happens too, but if it doesn't, well ... opportunities fro other guys, Thoresen among them. And it looks like he's safe from waiver loss for the rest of the year unless someone loses count.

Snow waived a bunch of guys on the 21st, which struck me as sensible but strange all at once. It's not like he sent them anywhere. Googling back, if we assume that the season starts on Wednesday, and not in London, then HockeyBuzz.com (jeesh) reported the new just minutes less than 12 days before the puck drops in Carolina tomorrow.

THAT, is precisely the right way to do it.

10/02/2007 12:55 pm  
Blogger allan said...

I agree wholeheartedly with that. It's so rare that I wonder about a "gentlemen's agreement" regarding training camp waivers.

The trouble in this situation is that Thoresen appears to be exempt from waivers. In section 9.2 of the CBA, age is determined as of September 15 of the calendar year the contract was signed. On September 15, 2006, he was only 22. According to section 13.4, if a player signed his first SPC at 22, he's exempt from waivers for 3 years, or 70 games played. Thoresen is only at 1 year, and 68 games played, so waiving him is not necessary unless they're trying to unload him.

10/02/2007 4:32 pm  
Blogger allan said...

The Oilers have now announced the final roster. It says Thoresen to Springfield, but nary a mention of waivers.

I guess we can just put this down to Dan Tencer doing what he does best.

10/02/2007 4:34 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

Lowetide says that Thoresen did clear waivers and that he would have to clear them again to come back to the NHL. His source, implicitly, is Guy Flaming.

If I had to put money on it, I would say that you are right. Still. Weird.

10/02/2007 5:48 pm  
Blogger speeds said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

10/02/2007 6:13 pm  
Blogger speeds said...

Allan:

The definition of "age" is different in different Articles of the CBA (for some reason).

In Article 13.4 (note 2) For purposes of this Article, ..."age 21" means a Player reaching his twenty-first birthday in the calendar year of the entry draft

I don't really know how that helps our discussion, BTW, just throwing that out there.

I agree though, I have no idea why he would have to clear re-entry waivers, having looked thru that section of the CBA it appears he has to be on a two way contract, which means he wouldn't qualify for re-entry waivers AFAIK.

10/02/2007 6:14 pm  
Blogger allan said...

Bah. That makes him 23 in the contract year, so the cutoff is 60 games. So I guess he cleared double-secret waivers.

But there's still no way he makes more than $100k on a 2-way deal, so he should still be exempt on re-entry.

10/02/2007 8:07 pm  

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