Saturday, December 15, 2007

Fenwick'd

Just an update on this simple measure of puck possession at even strength. This time I've added in the effect of faceoffs, because for every additional own zone draw you take you expect to lose 0.6 on your Fenwick number.

Also, sensible people everywhere would realize that the effect of your linemates has an impact. I don't think it's high thinking for someone to ponder "how much impact did Stortini have on Torres and Stoll? How did they do when they were playing with other linemates? How did those other linemates do when they were playing with yet other guys?" ... ad infinitum. In fact I think that's basic common sense.

I've parlayed the numbers through to remedy that, and they gravitate home remarkably quickly, just a few iterations and there is nothing left to do. This probably because of the simple truthiness of what we are measuring here, which is shots at net, less the blocked ones, with a bit of context (faceoff zones) added in. We're not mining through reams of NHL.com stats, we are just trying to measure what we see is important, that being having the puck in the right end of the rink and getting it on net. I'll add in 'shifts that end in an own zone draw', and the opposite, for next time that I do this (get your tall glasses of vinegar ready now, prospect fans!) ;) One step at a time though, for the few that are into this sort of thing.

Anyhow, this is how it shakes out. If you run these sensibly corrected Fenwick numbers from the table below against the H2H icetimes of the linemates ... you're back where you started with at the raw numbers, which is exactly as it should be if the world is round.

I didn't include the guys with little ice time on this table, so as not to encourage Thoresen's legions of irrational fans in the Oilogosphere. And everyone's numbers are corrected to Staiosian levels.



Bob Clarke was right, the Oilers have too many kids. And Stoll and Torres were right, Stortini was killing them. And Black Dog was right, Souray shouldn't be playing against good opposition. And Smid has improved a bunch from last year, still has a ways to go though. And once Stoll and Torres start finishing like they usually do, which should start any day now ... they'll win the hearts of Oiler fans again, book it.

9 Comments:

Blogger voxel said...

3-4 extra goals for Stoll + Torres to return to a respectable shooting percentage.

But will that win the hearts of Oiler fans? Doubt it. Especially if the goals happened over two games followed by a drought.

Consistency is the major problem with those two followed by bleeding more goals against than goals for (blame that on Huggybear for now). Pisani has shown more promise in his few games back than Stoll has all season.

IMO Stoll is done whereas Torres can redeem himself because he produces and doesn't bleed against.

12/16/2007 5:26 am  
Blogger MikeP said...

Penner's position on that list makes me feel kind of warm and fuzzy.

I wonder why he doesn't play much PK? Conditioning issues still, or maybe he's just too slow still?

12/16/2007 7:36 am  
Blogger mike w said...

Does this mean we can now say that Allan Rourke was officially overrated by most of the Oilogosphere?

I was never sold on him, although he played well within his limitations...

12/16/2007 6:06 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

I don't know, I think the biggest problem with Stoll is that he had a terrible first couple of weeks to start the year, and now he's usually starting his shifts in his own end, he's been playing against good opposition a lot lately. Plus the shooting percentage while he's been on the ice has been terrible. On top of that he's not been the designated shooter on the PP as much.

And to top it off, expectations from a lot of fans were a mile high. Which is crazy, because he's never carried a lot of responsibility before, and he's never been a producer at 5v5 save a short stretch last season. Even last year, his sans-Pisani 5v5 offense was poor.

He's pretty solid positionally though, a bonafide NHLer, something this team is low on.

And to add on the faceoff side:
Stoll has been on the ice for an even strength D zone draw a whopping 82 more times than he's been out for an offensive zone draw. And his EV shifts have ended in an own zone draw only 26 times more often than at the good end of the rink. That's nothing short of impressive IMO.

Personally, I've never been a big Stoll fan, but if you play that kind of ice time and you're not going to look good most nights. If anything, since Halloween I think Stoll looks better than years past. He seems quicker this year.

BTW: The Oilers have a lot more own zone draws than offensive zone ones of course, the player most likely to get an own zone draw is Cogliano (+7, or 7 more than D zone). And his shifts have ended in the bad end of the rink a whopping 34 more times. That's not just bad, that's Aaron-Downey-bad. Though Gagner is somehow slightly worse.

12/17/2007 11:59 am  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

MikeP:

To me, Penner doesn't look like he'll ever be much of a PKer, not quick enough. I don't even like seeing him out there for own zone draws, though MacTavish doesn't seem to mind.

If I could travel back in time and undo Lowe's RFA offer for Dustin I would. In a heartbeat. But that aside, he's a useful player at 5v5 and increasingly on the PP as well. And though this marvelous Oilers shootout team has some serious hockey problems, I don't think sensible people feel that that Penner is one of them.

12/17/2007 12:04 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

mike w:

Rourke was easy to like. He's a guy that's been slogging away in the AHL forever, he gets paid the league minimum, needed a series of injuries ahead of him to get a chance with the big club.

Plus he got a cool nickname in this part of the internet, and he had a haircut like a rockstar in a couple of the pix that were posted on the blogs.

You'd have to be a heartless bastard to cheer against the guy. I don't remember reading any bitching when he was sent down though.

12/17/2007 12:08 pm  
Blogger MikeP said...

vic - yeah, I think I'd undo the offer sheet too. But obviously, we can't.

So the next best thing is to look at Penner with unbiased eyes and see what it is he's doing.

I think that since the start of November or so, he's been doing the team more good than harm, and I challenge anybody who thinks otherwise to prove it with more than anecdotal evidence and raw point totals. He seems to come out looking ok any time somebody looks at the stats, particularly when compared to the rest of the team. Penner will be ok. If he costs the Oilers Stamkos, I'll be livid, but that won't be his fault - it'd be Lowe's.

12/18/2007 6:16 am  
Blogger namflashback said...

If this wasn't a re-bload and had actually been a re-build -- then a LW like Fedotenko might have been just as suitable and be achieving roughly the same results.

Stoll taking on the tougher comp has certainly had a bearing in Horcoff becoming Scorecoff. It is, I think, also allowing Penner to adjust to the tough comp lifestyle in a more gradual fashion.

Stoll's counting numbers are going to be crap by end of season unless he can find the trigger. But if he can continue to find way to the tough comp promised land

-- he may be doing more to help this club than he ever has in the past.
-- plus he'll be cheap to re-sign

12/18/2007 12:25 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

Yeah, I agree with all of that, namflashback.

I'm still not convinced he Stoll has the speed to handle that role. But if he finds his game doing that gig, and they can get him signed for reasonable coin because of the inevitably poorer counting numbers that come with that ... he could be a player that beats his salary when the Oilers are in a position to win, and Horcoff takes on that tough minutes again.

12/19/2007 1:45 pm  

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