Thursday, February 14, 2008

Gilbert is arbitration eligible, with a catch

*EDIT* I just want to correct some misinformation from this post that I just found out about...

I was partially correct in that Gilbert, Stoll, Thoresen and Grebeshkov are all eligible for team arbitration. However, ONLY Stoll can be completely shielded from an offer sheet. Gilbert, Thoresen and Grebeshkov will all have a 5 or 6 day window in which they are free to negotiate with all 30 teams.

Section 12.3.a says that any player who makes 1.5 mil+ may be taken to arbitration by the Club instead of being given a QO. The deadline to do so is June 15th or 48 hours after the last Stanley Cup Final game, whichever is latter (at least, that's how I read it).This applies to Stoll, and if EDM takes this option, Stoll can be given a salary no less than 85% of what he makes this season.

According to section 12.3.b, if a player makes less than 1.5 mil, as Thoresen, Gilbert and Grebeshkov all do, then the team must give them an standard QO by the deadline to retain their rights. After that, a player has until 5pm EST July 5th to opt for arbitration. Presumably this window was set up so players would have 3 or 4 days to talk with all 30 teams, and then have the information necessary to decide whether or not they should file for arbitration. If the player does NOT opt for arbitration by the July 5th 5pm New York time deadline, then the club will have a 24 window in which it can opt for club arbitration, the deadline being July 6th, 5pm New York time.

In effect, there is nothing the team can do to prevent Gilbert, Thoresen or Grebeshkov from receiving an offer sheet before July 5th 3pm EDM time (unless, of course, they are already re-signed). After that, the Oilers can take one of the three to arb if they are so inclined. That is assuming they have already taken Stoll to arbitration. If they have not taken Stoll to arbitration, then they could take two of the 3 to arbitration were they so inclined.
ONLY Stoll can be completely shielded from an offer sheet. Gilbert, Thoresen and Grebeshkov will all have a 5 or 6 day window in which they are free to negotiate with all 30 teams.

Section 12.3.a says that any player who makes 1.5 mil+ may be taken to arbitration by the Club instead of being given a QO. The deadline to do so is June 15th or 48 hours after the last Stanley Cup Final game, whichever is latter (at least, that's how I read it).This applies to Stoll, and if EDM takes this option, Stoll can be given a salary no less than 85% of what he makes this season.

According to section 12.3.b, if a player makes less than 1.5 mil, as Thoresen, Gilbert and Grebeshkov all do, then the team must give them an standard QO by the deadline to retain their rights. After that, a player has until 5pm EST July 5th to opt for arbitration. Presumably this window was set up so players would have 3 or 4 days to talk with all 30 teams, and then have the information necessary to decide whether or not they should file for arbitration. If the player does NOT opt for arbitration by the July 5th 5pm New York time deadline, then the club will have a 24 window in which it can opt for club arbitration, the deadline being July 6th, 5pm New York time.

In effect, there is nothing the team can do to prevent Gilbert, Thoresen or Grebeshkov from receiving an offer sheet before July 5th 3pm EDM time. After that, the Oilers can take one of the three to arb if they are so inclined. That is assuming they have already taken Stoll to arbitration. If they have not taken Stoll to arbitration, then they could take two of the 3 to arbitration were they so inclined.

ONLY Stoll can be completely shielded from an offer sheet. Gilbert, Thoresen and Grebeshkov will all have a 5 or 6 day window in which they are free to negotiate with all 30 teams.

Section 12.3.a says that any player who makes 1.5 mil+ may be taken to arbitration by the Club instead of being given a QO. The deadline to do so is June 15th or 48 hours after the last Stanley Cup Final game, whichever is latter (at least, that's how I read it).This applies to Stoll, and if EDM takes this option, Stoll can be given a salary no less than 85% of what he makes this season.

According to section 12.3.b, if a player makes less than 1.5 mil, as Thoresen, Gilbert and Grebeshkov all do, then the team must give them an standard QO by the deadline to retain their rights. After that, a player has until 5pm EST July 5th to opt for arbitration. Presumably this window was set up so players would have 3 or 4 days to talk with all 30 teams, and then have the information necessary to decide whether or not they should file for arbitration. If the player does NOT opt for arbitration by the July 5th 5pm New York time deadline, then the club will have a 24 window in which it can opt for club arbitration, the deadline being July 6th, 5pm New York time.

In effect, there is nothing the team can do to prevent Gilbert, Thoresen or Grebeshkov from receiving an offer sheet before July 5th 3pm EDM time. After that, the Oilers can take one of the three to arb if they are so inclined. That is assuming they have already taken Stoll to arbitration. If they have not taken Stoll to arbitration, then they could take two of the 3 to arbitration were they so inclined.

I hope this may clear up any misunderstandings I've caused, and hopefully this will be the last time I need to clear up any such misunderstanding on this matter. What follows is the original post, with whatever corrections were required.

*****************************************************

I'm writing this post mainly to mention that, having looked at the CBA (and what I believe are the relevant sections), Gilbert is arbitration eligible.

Meaning that if Lowe files for team arbitration with Gilbert between July 5th and July 6th, Gilbert would NOT be eligible to receive an offer sheet beyond that date. However, Gilbert WOULD be eligible to receive an offer sheet between July 1st and July 5th, even if Lowe is planning to take Gilbert to arbitration. This is also true for Patrick Thoresen and Denis Grebeshkov. The team can, however, completely shield Stoll from an offer sheet should they so chooses, because his salary was above 1.5 mil for the 07/8 season.

The players who are certain RFA "worries" for the Oilers this summer, are (I believe this to be accurate, but am certainly willing to correct the list if I'm mistaken):

Pitkanen
Nilsson
Stortini
Pouliot
Jacques
Deslauriers

*NOTE* this isn't a complete list, it's simply of those listed at http://nhlnumbers.com/overview.php?team=EDM

12 Comments:

Blogger Andy Grabia said...

Good catch. Thanks!

1/26/2008 5:15 pm  
Blogger jon said...

I think people are over-estimating the impact of the offer sheet. Thier is a reason it is so rare in hockey and we are seeing it right now. Penner is a good player that I like but Lowe may have given up a great player in the draft. In the year of Johnny T in the draft I cannot see any GM giving up a draft pick without knowing for sure where they stand next year.

As for our worry list...not so worried. offer:

Joni P six year 26 million and if he does not take it wait...because seeing the last two years he has had I do not see any GM offering more.

Nilsson, trade to another team in a package of some kind for a proper 2nd line player

Gilbert sign a 4 year 12 million deal

The rest should be taken to arbitration because I think 2 years deals are ideal for everyone else.

1/27/2008 8:48 am  
Blogger dstaples said...

I can see an offer sheet for Nilsson in the 2-3 million range that would hurt the Oilers.

Of course, I rate Nilsson more highly than many others.

But he is entering his prime scoring years, he has taken a step forward this year, he is a good bet.

Pitkanen will also be a prime target in the 4-5 million range for a good team, such as Detroit/Ottawa, who don't have to worry that they will give up a lottery draft pick in compensation. In this way, the NHL's compensation system for RFAs greatly benefits the best teams in the league.

Of course, the Oilers could match any offer for either player, and if the money gets too crazy for Pitkanen, in the range where 4 first rounders would come Edmonton's way, Edmonton might be wise not too match, and would be very wise not too match if it's a low-ranked NHL team that offers a deal to Pitkanen.

All this depends on your evaluation of Pitkanen, of course. He is such an inconsistent player, especially on defence, it's hard to know what to think, but, again, he's getting at that age where many defencemen finally figure out a few things about positional play, his major weakness, so his upside remains tremendous.

1/27/2008 12:30 pm  
Blogger speeds said...

Jon: We don't know how rare offer sheets are/will be in this CBA, because it hasn't been aroung long enough to truly say. There were 2 last year, and one the year before, in the 2 summers where teams had time with the CBA to figure out what to do.

I would agree that there are teams that probably shouldn't get into offer sheets if they expect their team to be poor the following season, but it's tough to identify those teams in advance. I would have thought PHX was clearly one of those teams, yet they have 10 teams behind them in the standings.

dstaples:

Nilsson is a guy that some team may go after.

It will be interesting to see how teams use their scouts in this regard as well. There may be a team that has watched a Pouliot* play in the AHL and is convinced he's an NHLer. They may decide it's cheaper to sign him to an offer sheet than it is to trade for him in assets, and sign him to a 1 year, one way deal at 1.2 mil.

With Pitkanen a team would have to pay more than that for EDM not to match, I would imagine. Last year's compensation tiers, which are tied to the cap and thus can be expected to rise 5-10%, were 4.6 mil for 1st, 2nd and 3rd, and 5.8 mil for 2-1sts, 2nd and 3rd. Money would be a factor but I don't see EDM letting Pitkanen go to a 5 mil offer, especially if a team like DET makes it, and EDM were to only receive a 1st, 2nd and 3rd as comp.


* (I used Pouliot because we're familiar with him, but there are probably better examples. Tambellini may be one, a guy mentioned a couple of time)

1/27/2008 11:17 pm  
Blogger Matt said...

In effect, there is nothing the team can do to prevent Gilbert, Thoresen or Grebeshkov from receiving an offer sheet before July 5th 3pm EDM time.

Well, besides signing them to a contract between now and June 30.

2/14/2008 3:52 pm  
Blogger speeds said...

Thanks matt, I fixed that on HF, but forgot to here.

2/14/2008 5:52 pm  
Blogger Paulus said...

DStaples said: the NHL's compensation system for RFAs greatly benefits the best teams in the league.

I think this is mostly incorrect David. Even the best teams in the league need their draft picks that they would have to give up for an RFA signing. In fact, your examples, Ottawa and Detroit, have built their teams based on very strong draft records. The teams that trade away draft picks end up like the Maple Leafs. The success of teams like Detroit is based on long-term thinking involving the draft, and not on rash RFA signings and trades, at least in general.

The RFA system, in my opinion, can't be successfully utilized for any long-term success. Most rational GM's seem to share my opinion, since offer sheets are rarely sent out.

2/16/2008 3:05 pm  
Blogger dstaples said...

Paulus, Detroit has been the NHL's best or second best team for some time. But it doesn't value it's first picks too much. In eight of the 15 years from 1992-2006, it traded its top pick, most often for veteran talent that would help win a Cup immediately. So I can certainly see Detroit employing this strategy in the RFA market, now that the floodgates are open, with the Penner signing.

Here are Detroit's first picks since 1992.
Curtis Bowen (22), Anders Eriksson (22), Yan Golubovsky (23), Maxim Kuznetsov (26), Jesse Wallin (26), Yuri Butsayev (49, indicating the Wings traded their first that year), Jiri Fischer (25), Jari Tolsa (120, traded three top picks that year), Niklas Kronwall (29), Igor Grigorenko (62, traded top picks), Jiri Hudler (traded top picks), James Howard (traded top picks), Johan Franzen, (97, traded top picks), Jakuk Kindl (19), Cory Emmerton (41, traded top picks.)

In a number of years, we see Detroit traded first, second and third top picks as well. I think the astute management in Detroit has long realized that building through the draft, the backbone strategy of dynasty teams in the 70s and 80s, no longer was the way to go in the 1990s, and shifted course. I suspect that trend will continue, perhaps even accelerate and RFA signings will be part of it.

2/16/2008 4:36 pm  
Blogger speeds said...

The RFA system, in my opinion, can't be successfully utilized for any long-term success.

I don't know if I agree, at least with regard to 2nd round picks.

IF you could land a player every year with RFA offer sheets at the 2nd round comp level (between ~ 1.3 mil and 2.6 mil), I'm not sure you would actually get a better return by using those picks to actually draft players.

2/16/2008 6:02 pm  
Blogger Paulus said...

Ah, but David, first round picks aren't everything. The danger I would think most inherent is in losing those second and third round picks. In a draft, especially these apparently deep ones upcoming, that quantity of picks can help make up for how far back in the draft they will pick.

I see your point more clearly, though, that since quality of draft pick is irrelevant when exchanged for an RFA, it will benefit the teams with the 25th to 30th pick. I think that's what you meant. But even higher draft picks have quality, considering how high Datsyuk and Zetterberg were picked.

Speeds: The lower-tier offer sheet makes more sense than the batshit crazy Vanek-style type, but even then I can't really see many GMs walking that fine a line of fortune. The draft itself, even with modern scouting and player development and such, can be a crapshoot, but so is dropping draft picks for a 25 year old player. I don't envy the GM who has to make that decision.

I guess I just don't buy this "opening of the floodgates" that the Penner and Vanek fiascos have apparently instigated. I have a feeling that such a route will only be taken by desperate or maybe vengeful GMs.

2/17/2008 2:00 pm  
Blogger dstaples said...

Paulus:
Just to make sure my point is clear -- what I mean is that if a team with an expectation of finishing in the bottom ten, such as Edmonton or Chicago might well have had heading into this season, signs a RFA, they know they might well pay with a draft pick in the top ten in the draft, when the odds of drafting a great player are much higher. But if Ottawa or Detroit were to sign an RFA, they would expect the compensation to be a first pick between 20-30, and these picks are much less valuable.

If Detroit had signed Penner, it would only be giving up the 29th or 30th pick overall, plus the 60th and 90th picks, which many GMs might well think is a bargain for a player like Penner (though there is still the matter of paying his $4 million plus salary, which some GMs might well think is too much for him).

So, in this way, the RFA compensation system is set up to benefit strong teams (though, of couse, no team, or GM, can truly tell where the team is going to end up at the start of the year.).

2/17/2008 4:54 pm  
Blogger speeds said...

Paulus:

Yes, it would be kind of risky to sign a player to a 3 year, 7.5 mil contract that would also cost a 2nd round pick in compensation, but every signing is risky in that way.

In using the 2nd to draft, you are taking a risk whether the player pans out at all. In using a 2nd to sign RFA's, the risk lies in they money tied up and your projection of the player, + the cost of losing a 2nd round lottery ticket.

My take would be that it is less "risky", in terms of the chances of getting a useable player, to use a 2nd round pick to sign Rostislav Olesz to a 3 year, 7.5 mil offer sheet this summer, VS using it to draft some guy in the 2nd round of the 2009 draft.

In Olesz you would get a guy who was picked 7th overall, already is a usable player and still has a lot of upside. He is a much more sure bet than a 2nd round pick, though the cost if you are wrong is far higher (in terms of money, roster, etc). This risk, however, is no different than the risk involved in signing any established player.

2/17/2008 5:10 pm  

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