Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Discussing Two Deadline deals

(1)

To ATL: Christensen, Armstrong, Esposito, 2008 PIT 1st
To PIT: Marian Hossa, Dupuis

Darren Dreger
and Bob McKenzie imply that this is a decision that came from above. This sounds pretty reasonable, if you look at this deal as McKenzie does in tradional hockey fashion; that the team is close to winning now, the conference is tight, and this move may well put them over the top. It could also, potentially and maybe even probably, be a smart move from a business perspective.

When I was thinking about this last night after the deal was completed, I was looking at it in a simple fashion. If adding Hossa and Dupuis, even as pure rentals, gets PIT into the 3rd or 4th round instead of the 2nd, or the 3rd round instead of bounced in the 1st or 2nd, this deal is probably a winner for PIT. They would earn whatever additional profit they would generate from 2-8 extra home playoff games. That is probably worth somewhere between 2 and 10 mil, maybe even more (since I'm assuming ticket prices rise in PIT as you get to the next round). PIT picks up ~ 1.55 mil in salary by adding Hossa and Dupuis while removing ~0.4 mil in salary by subtracting Christensen and Armstrong, for a net addition of 1.15 mil. Having seen MC's recent (and not so recent) postings, I feel obligated to mention that this analysis is unlikely to be complete enough, but as a rationale for why they would have gone after Hossa, I think it still illustrates the general point in any case. I'll try to look at it more in depth in the comment section.

It appears that PIT feels it is worth gambling by spending 1.15 mil now for a chance at boosting their playoff revenue. That is without considering that, perhaps, they can boost season ticket prices for next season and beyond with a long playoff run this season, and without considering their ability to re-sign either Hossa or Dupuis.

(2)

To TB: Smith, Halpern, Jokinen, 2009 4th
To DAL: Brad Richards, Holmqvist

First, congrats to Vic on calling Richards to DAL, can't remember where I read you calling that one, but right on the money.

This deal is pretty interesting to me, because when we talked about it a bit at LT's site, we figured that something like Roloson, Stoll, Torres would be more or less money neutral for the Oilers.

Interestingly enough, that's kind of what they package ended up being. Halpern is signed for 2 years after this at a 2 mil cap hit, while Torres is signed for 2 years after this with a 2.25 mil cap hit (but at 2.5-2.6mil in real dollars). Jokinen's signed for another year at a 1.82 cap hit (makes 1.875mil) while Stoll reaches UFA 1 year earlier and is due a 2.2 mil QO this summer (but can be taken to arb, where theoretically he could be awarded 85% of 2.2 mil. Hard to know what he'd earn thru arbitration, but with no look at comparables I'm not sure he'd be due a paycut).

Smith is obviously way younger than Roloson, and makes 2.7 mil less, but both are UFA's after next season.

If EDM had offered Roloson, Deslauriers, Stoll and Torres for Richards and Denis, would that seem like an offer somewhere in the ballpark of the DAL offer*? Would anyone have been for that, from an Oilers perspective?

* = this is mostly just for argument's sake. I think TB must like Smith quite a bit, and Jokinen as well, and so they probably prefer the DAL offer in any case.

7 Comments:

Blogger Bruce said...

I think Tampa did as well from this deal as could reasonably be expected. Unless I'm completely off-base (which has been known to happen) Smith is a couple cuts above Holmqvist, Denis, Ramo and Gumper the Goalie. He may be UFA after next season but if he fits in Tampa he will re-sign there. Goalies looking for #1 jobs and teams looking for #1 goalies are always a nice fit. (See: Roloson, Biron and Bryzgalov as three recent examples of guys who quickly re-upped with their new clubs.)

J.Jokinen is a useful player and Halpern provides (slightly expensive) depth. Surely Tampa is a far stronger defensive club today than they were last week. The Bolts come out way ahead on the $$$ front, three incomers for under $4.8 MM next season compared to $7.8 MM for Richards alone. It seems clear they used the savings to sign Boyle to a ~$3 MM raise.

Richards is a better fit in Dallas than he would be in Edmonton or was in Tampa because they can surround him with better two-way players, reduce his ice time and get him to focus on those things he is good at rather than trying to be a 25-minute-a-game jack-of-all-trades. This is a great opportunity for Brad, he could hardly have asked for better.

I'll be interested to see how long he lasts on Dave Tippett's PK unit.

2/27/2008 1:22 pm  
Blogger speeds said...

To add something I forgot re: EDM and the Richards deal:

Finding an equitable trade with TB would have probably only been the first step, not much reason to think Richards would prefer to go to EDM instead of DAL, at the moment.

2/27/2008 1:46 pm  
Blogger Black Dog said...

A good fit for Dallas for sure. From what I have read Smith was definitely what tipped it in the Stars' favour. Tampa liked him a lot and none of the other teams apparently in the running could offer them a goalie who interested them more then him.

2/27/2008 6:09 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

I hate the Stars as a team as much as I hate Mike Keane as an individual. And they are just never going to have to rebuild, it seems.

Though they lost a promising goalie in Mike Smith I think, he's a good fit for that T.B team moving forward, assuming they can sign him in the summer. And it makes sense that they will.

And they lost a very good NHLer in Halpern. I've always rated him, for the life of me I can't understand why Washington let him go. I think he was raised in that area as well.

Probably it's a bit easier for Dallas to feel the "just an unlucky season" vibe. Because on their own team Modano has been, hands down, their best forward, yet his counting numbers suck this year. He's still getting monstrous respect from opposing coaches though. How long was it before Iginla played his second shift in DAL in their last game there? ... it was a ways in (and I know, I know, most of that was because he had Huselius on the other wing instead of Tanguay. Still, the point stands, Modo is still a feared player.)

For some reason I never seem to notice Jokinen, though I think that LT rates him highly. And in any case he is a UFA at season's end.

.

Agree on the PIT-ATL trade, looks good for both teams also. Frankly, I can't understand why there has been much controversy about it in the media.

2/27/2008 10:16 pm  
Blogger YKOil said...

I rated both teams, Pittsburgh and Dallas, as having done very well with their deadline trades.

Nice analysis speeds.

2/27/2008 10:37 pm  
Blogger Lowetide said...

The question that should keep us awake nights is "where is the Brad Richards money going to go?"

We can kid ourselves that Lowe will sign Hossa but there's every chance we'll see a 5.5M deal for Bobby Holik.

2/27/2008 11:05 pm  
Blogger Bruce said...

Vic: J.Jokinen still has a year to run at $1.875 MM. Smith has another year at $950 K, and Halpern two years at $2 MM per. Three solid players in my view. This was the rare "hockey trade" which was not driven by expiring contracts, prospects and picks, although obviously budgets did enter into it. Tampa got three players signed through at least next year, and Dallas got a star signed for three years. The one upcoming UFA (Holmqvist) and draft pick (fourth-rounder) were minor details to complete the trade; the other assets were tangible in the medium-to-long term.

This was the best trade of the day.

2/28/2008 12:02 am  

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