Friday, February 08, 2008

Patterns

Inspired by some commentary on Jarret Stoll in the blogs, yet another exploration of context.

You will have to click on the image to view it.

The 33 players in the NHL this season who have been on the ice for more defensive zone draws are at the top. By way of example Bobby Holik has been on the ice for a whopping 225 MORE defensive zone draws than ones at the other end of the rink. It turns out that you get a lot of practice at that when you play on the same team as Kovalchuk. And all things considered he's holding up pretty well, a Fenwick of -85 is pretty respectable, all things considered, he's playing a lot against good players too. The guy still has game.

At the other end of the spectrum, and at the bottom half of the chart, Renney has gotten Jagr onto the ice for 123 MORE offensive zone draws than ones in his own end. Jaromir is kicking ass with that opportunity as well in terms of chances, though they haven't been going in for him too easily this year. And the +225 Fenwick number will translate into results soon enough. That whole Ranger team has hit an absurd number of goalposts as well. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch.

Anyhow, clearly if you're playing one type of ice time vs the other, it has a profound effect on your results. If the correlation between Fenwick number (and by extension, 5v5 +/- ) and own-zone draws is a coincidence, it's an absolute belter.

And I shudder to think where the Oilers would be without Stoll and Reasoner, Who have been playing very tough minutes as well since late November. Of course this was usually Horcoff and Smyth's gig in years past, including the year that Peca was an Oiler.

As an aside, I was going to write a bit on Mike Richards' fluky season, but there is a rookie defenceman on the Thrashers named Enstrom, and he clearly has made a deal with the devil. Both bubbles that just have to burst eventually.

4 Comments:

Blogger Slipper said...

For Richards' sake it's flukey in manner that favours him because I think he's severely overrated.

Marc Savard, on the other hand, is considerably underrated. He's like Mike Sillinger but with finish.

2/08/2008 7:36 pm  
Blogger RiversQ said...

Nice stuff Vic.

Some random comments:

- That's a big ouch for Jovo. Someone email that to Tom Benjamin.

- It's nice to see Trent Hunter and Ryan Kesler on here so high.

Kesler was a great run by Clarke I thought (a textbook RFA offer sheet) and you have to love Hunter's game. I've watched a fair amount of Hunter this year and that guy is an absolute horse. He's a puck battle winning machine.

If you're looking for maximum 5V5forward value, Cleary and Hunter have to be two of the best out there. I'd love to see one or both here.

- Speaking of Cleary, how did he do? And how come there aren't many Red Wings on either list? I guess Babcock shares the love.

- As for the RFA list, it sure looks like Jeff Carter's career as a Flyer is in jeopardy. Is he worth a run for less than $3MM/yr?

- Lastly, Stoll has been an offensive sinkhole this year, but you have to respect his contribution. No wonder he told MacT to fuck off after the Stortini vs. Crosby disaster.

2/11/2008 12:14 am  
Blogger Matt said...

As usual Vic, incredible stuff. It's great to know that there's another important lens (besides Quality of Comp & Linemates) through which to examine results.

I don't think there's any excuse for Brad Richards' $7.8M results to be as poor as they are, but the next time I hear that there's not as much difference between him and Vinny as the boxcar numbers would imply, I'll agree...

2/12/2008 7:23 pm  
Blogger Dennis said...

First time caller, long time listener, Vic:)

I guess you'd guess that this season is just a blip for Stoll and that he's worth taking another shot at for '09?

As for Cleary, Holland says he's offering him 2.5 mill a season and wants an awnser by the deadline. He's set that timeframe because he's wondering how many potential UFA's he'll have going into this summer as it will determine how many assets he might give up to acquire yet another guy who might potentially walk.

Sillinger is an absolute dog to work and Hunter uses his size like you'd wish our very own Jacques would.

2/13/2008 10:13 pm  

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