Tuesday, April 08, 2008

Projecting the Kids

There are a lot of good reasons to be optimistic about this Oiler team, and the play of the kids after Horcoff went down is a big part of that.

I think that it's always worthwhile to look at the 'hows' in this situation though, so I'll take a rough shot at it. Here is a list of the Oilers rookies from NHL game 20800 onward, when Horcoff went down, or thereabouts. You can find the data here.

The Oilers PP continued to hum along, and the PK has always been decent under MacTavish it seems. And they were getting their EV results with stellar shooting percentages.



I tacked a few of the league's best on at the bottom as well, the best I could find (excepting Doug Murray, who was a superhuman 16.7% at this in the first half of the season, and an enforceresque 6.9% in the second half).

Draw your own conclusions.

14 Comments:

Blogger Lowetide said...

Pouliot!

4/08/2008 5:17 pm  
Blogger Jonathan said...

I suppose the positive I'll take out of this chart is that Penner has lots of room to improve.

Watching the games, I think it should've been pretty clear that the 4th line was getting fairly lucky in terms of how many of their chances were going in.

I think this also makes clear how important it is to keep a veteran guy for 3rd/4th line duties, be it Stoll/Resoner/UFA. Brodziak simply isn't ready for a massive increase in quality of competition at this point, even if he is a good bet to carve out a Bob Bassen-style career.

4/08/2008 7:28 pm  
Blogger Mr DeBakey said...

I was seeing Pouliot good
He seemed to be making good things happen.
And it looks like he was.

Tough minutes - Brodziak/Glencross played a fair bit against Iginla in that last Calgary game

4/08/2008 9:22 pm  
Blogger PDO said...

Could we get the Fenwick number in a ratio of some sort?

Just because, IIRC (and I think I do!), the kids were getting SLAUGHTERED in terms of Fenwick early on in the season, were they not?

I mean, the numbers are still ugly, and EVSV% driven, but they're a helluva lot better than they were 6 months ago, aren't they?

4/09/2008 11:31 am  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

PDO

Those shown are the fenwicks for just the latter part of the season.

You are quite right that the numbers for these players, for the season on the whole, are a nightmare.

These shooting percentages are obviously just for the last stretch as well. Otherwise we'd have seven Mario Lemieuxs on our hands.

4/09/2008 1:01 pm  
Blogger andy grabia said...

Otherwise we'd have seven Mario Lemieuxs on our hands.

We don't? Aww nuts.

So the numbers for the four non-Oilers is from the time Horc went out as well? Yikes.

4/09/2008 3:07 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

No, Andy. Sorry for not being clear about this.

The Oiler numbers are since Horcoff went down, so near enough a third of the season. the final thrid of course.

The other guys' numbers are for the whole year. These are the players who I could find that had the best EVshooting% while they were on the ice, for the season as a whole.

My point: while the underlying numbers improved through the year for the Oilers, the late season surge was mostly due to a bitchin' good shooting% at evens. And it won't repeat. I mean does anyone in their right mind think that these seven Oiler rookies will finish ahead of the mentioned star players at this next year, 1 thru 7? I wouldn't think so.

I would hope that nobody is crazy enough to wager on even one of these guys beating one of those guys ... know what I mean?

4/09/2008 3:56 pm  
Blogger PDO said...

If I got decent odds, and could say "one of the seven" may beat "one of those 4", I think I'd bet $5 on it, just because that gives me a lot of possibilities ;).

If Gagner is used in a soft minutes role, is it all that crazy to think he could finish with a similar shooting percentage and an even Fenwick #?

4/10/2008 4:27 pm  
Blogger PDO said...

Vic:

Would you recommend betus.com for online betting?

4/10/2008 8:42 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

PDO:

Frankly, my recommendation to anyone would be to not bet at all.

Checking the opinions of the bookies is always worthwhile though, imo.

4/10/2008 10:01 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

Gagner shooting% isn't all that crazy to start with. A player with his skills should be able to average something around there during his career.

And the shots directed at net thing, that leans more with Gagner than his regular linemates fom this stretch. And he's not 19 until late summer iirc.

If Horcoff comes back, and Hemsky, Pisani, and Penner stay healthy, as well as the veteran defenders ... he should have the space and opportunity to put up good numbers in every category I'd think. Underlying numbers too.

4/10/2008 10:05 pm  
Blogger Jonathan said...

I have an entry up on my blog showing the ratio between primary and secondary assists - about 74% of Gagner's assists are first assists. This is a guy who drives the offense, and will be a really special player inside of 5 seasons.

4/11/2008 8:38 am  
Blogger choppystride said...

Vic, I've always wondered how punters like yourself get your edge.

I recently read an article about professional baseball gamblers:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601093&sid=aqW2nsL9dclM&refer=home

Seems like a mix of systems and scouting and that one needs to go pretty far to get that proprietary edge.

Would one need to go to the same extent to succeed on hockey betting?

I imagine that backtesting against historical odds is a given. But would you, say, hire detectives to get a read on the players' off-ice life, or perform other "scouting work" of that nature?

4/11/2008 2:50 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

Everybody lies, choppystride. And I doubt this guy mentioned in the article would appreciate being called a punter, he seems like anything but a casual bettor.

The idea of betting the over/under on runs based on the winds just before a game at Wrigley is clever though. Granted those lines have the highest natural holds from the bookies.

And of course, every bookie in the world is losing money at the sport that you wager on. I heard a guy from Team1260 on the radio from Vegas a couple of years ago, the casino sports book manager told him that they always took a loss on NHL hockey, the market was just so damn sophisticated. Had the reporter told Mr Casino that he was from Lawrence, Kansas ... he would have been told about the shitkicking that they have taken at the hands of college basketball bettors. Some things never change.

According to the Nevada Gaming Commission, the Vegas books lost a fortune this season in the NFL playoffs (presumably the favourites covered the spread a lot, I dunno), the casinos publicized this.

And this gaming consultant is telling us that the books are lucky to just break even with MLB? Gimme a break.:)

BTW: I am not a punter, shark or bookie, and I don't play the middle out game. I value the opinions of the oddsmakers and bookies, that's the extent of it.

4/16/2008 2:53 pm  

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