Monday, June 30, 2008

2008 UFA's of Interest / Visnovsky reaction

Here are some players that I am guessing will be of varying degrees of interest for the club, categorized below

Players that would be of interest for the Oilers, but will probably cost too much/probably don’t want to come here:

F Selanne, F Sundin, F Forsberg, F Jagr, F Rolston, F Hossa, D Campbell, F Naslund, F Fedorov

Some forwards that could be good fits:

EDM could use another F, probably a C or LW, though after the Visnovsky trade (commentary at the end of this post) it appears as though the F may come via a trade involving Pitkanen. That said, Plan A for me would be to sign one of the following players to a short term deal (1 or 2 years if possible), and retain Pitkanen on a one year deal:

LW Nagy – He’s a really good fit, IMO, except that some may consider him too “soft” given Stoll having been traded away. A player who had a bad year last year, will probably come cheaper than he should. If the Oilers could get Nagy signed to a 2 year deal and keep Pitkanen, I’d be pretty happy.

RW Vrbata, Jason Williams, Satan and Demitra, LW Brunette, Stillman – could be nice fits as well, but will cost likely more than Nagy and could require more years.

F Fedotenko - I think he’d be a nice add, especially if they move Torres but even if they don’t he’s a player EDM can use. Questionable whether he’s a top 6, or more likely top 9 F, and EDM does have a bunch of money tied up in their 3rd/4th lines already.

LW Huselius– Might require too many years, and it will probably be for too much money, and he may be too “soft” for the liking of some anyways. I would take him at the right price and term (as I suppose is the case with almost everyone listed, lol).

F Avery – His on-ice play sounds like a good fit for EDM, who is supposedly looking for grit and scoring. You get both in Avery, but I’m not sure he’d want to play here, and even if he did I’m not sure the money would be there or that EDM wants to deal with his off ice persona, overblown or not.

C Morrison – if they end up moving, or planning to move Horcoff, I could see them going after Morrison, thinking he’s a reasonable replacement (BTW, I don’t think he is).

The following are, IMO, players that might be good depth signings:

F Reasoner – seems like he could be coming back, but he also seems like a pretty decent fit, price dependant.

F Gelinas – good veteran LW that might come at a reasaonable price.

F Glencross – who knows, if he checks out the market and the offers aren’t what he’s expecting EDM still seems like a pretty good fit to me.

F Rissmiller – I think he could just be a nice value buy, but we’ll see

F Ruutu, Laraque, Dupuis – either could be interesting as 4th line presences, but I haven’t got the impression that Laraque will be coming back, and I don’t know if the Oilers are particular fans of Ruutu. I think Dupuis would be a nice add, but like a lot of players on this list I think there are other teams that can and will pay him more than EDM should.

C Holik, Vasicek and Peca- all 3 could potentially be interesting fits given Stoll’s departure, Vasicek would probably come cheapest but injuries are a concern. I’m not sure Holik would come here, and I’ve seen the Peca show before the regular season, but there aren’t many of these types of C available this summer so they are listed.

On defence, EDM doesn’t have a lot of spending room, but I think they could use another veteran D if they move Pitkanen. If they don’t, they appear set on the back end. I like, and may have targeted, guys like Kalinen, Stuart, Rozsival, Mara, and Redden were it not for the Visnovsky deal. Remaining defenders to target:

D Smith, Sauer, Salvador, Malik, Commodore, Eaton, Orpik. Orpik and Commodore will probably cost too much, but the others would all be of interest at the right price. However, the “right price” for other teams for these players is likely to be higher than the “right price” for the Oilers, so I don’t necessarily expect EDM to land any of them.

Visnovsky trade:

I have been a fan of Visnovsky in the past, but I didn’t see much of him this year during what I hear was a terrible year for him.

I don’t like having so much money tied up in Visnovsky and Souray, on long term deals, but it’s not as bad as it appears IMO. Visnovsky’s NMC is apparently gone since he was traded before it took effect, and Souray’s is over in 2 years and one day. Both have declining contracts, so in 2 years time both will be making less actual money than their cap hit, which should make both more tradeable/valuable in trade than if they were paid an identical amount per season. Having said that, I’m not sure the acquisition quite “fits” the needs of the team. I’ll be glad to see Vvisnovsky as an Oiler, but a player of his type is not the first need I thought of when thinking about the Oilers this off-season.

With regard to the players leaving, I have never been a big fan of Greene and thus am not horribly concerned about losing him, but losing Stoll could hurt in the long term if he rebounds. I hope EDM hangs on to Pitkanen, but it appears the writing is on the wall.

If they keep Pitkanen, I’d be pretty happy with the following lineup:

Nagy Horcoff Hemsky
Penner Gagner Nilson
Torres Cogliano Pisani
Moreau Brodziak Pouliot

Visnovsky Gilbert
Souray Grebeshkov
PItkanen Staios
Smid, Roy


Alternatively, if they deal Pitkanen for a F (let’s say a LW), they may be able to sign a D (I’ll guess Salvador), and go with something like:

NEW LW Horcoff Hemsky
Penner Gagner Nilson
Torres Cogliano Pisani
Moreau Brodziak Pouliot

Visnovsky Gilbert
Souray Grebeshkov
Salvador Staios
Smid, Roy


I prefer the first lineup, but then again I like Nagy more than most. That Nagy lineup would be really close the cap (in fact, it might not be workable), but I think I like the looks of it.


Blogger RiversQ said...

Well Lowe had two choices this year, either stand pat and wait one more year or go big.

He's gone one step by finding a WC dman who can play decent opp and get on the PP, now it remains to be seen if he can go the rest of the way.

Whether that's Hossa or a big move, he needs to do one more big thing that will preserve next year as well.

The wheelhouse is still 09/10, even if they wheel a Hossa or a Spezza.

6/30/2008 9:56 pm  
Blogger YKOil said...

Any chance Souray is the guy traded? A man can dream can't he?

I am becoming a bigger fan of Visnovsky as we go. Primarily because I see him being a guy we can pair up properly and thus access the upside he has (far better than LA did last year anyways).

We have some cross-over on our lists. I am less sold on Nagy and moreso on Vasicek. Dupuis is also a guy I really like.

My sleeper is Tjarnqvist believe it or not. Could be gold.

Fun time of year.

6/30/2008 10:20 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

I'm high on Nagy too, given that his price will probably be at it's low ebb right now. Surprising to me that there are actually a bunch of useful players on that list. If the Hossa bid falls short, there are a lot of other good options still available. And I would guess that the teams that miss out on the big three (Sundin, Hossa, Jagr) will set their sights on that group.

The D market is just nuts again, don't you think. Sauer played the back half of the season with big EV minutes and in a shutdown role, started a whack of his shifts in his own end. And without Sakic on the ice with him, and he did well. From what I can tell, Finger played with Liles in the bottom pair, mostly against depth from the other roster, and had a crazy good year with the counting numbers that even his Mom probably doesn't expect will happen again.

And the Campbell and Redden contracts may just be crazier. Imagine how much Visnovsky would have gotten had he not signed the extension with L.A last summer and put himself on the free agent market yesterday? Damn.


7/02/2008 8:57 am  

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