Monday, November 10, 2008

Viscoff

Meet Shawnomir Viscoff. This cat can play hockey.

There was an interesting comment in the game day thread at the Lowetide blog yesterday. Someone remarked that the trio of Horcoff, Hemsky and Visnovsky had not been on the ice together for a goal against at even strength (EV) this season.

Now they've all looked terrific for most of the season, so we'd expect them to have done well on the ice together. But of course that could be just a bit of luck as well, so I thought I'd check the underlying numbers. If you enter the following url at timeonice.com, you can see how the shots flowed when these three were on the ice together.

http://timeonice.com/playershots.php?team=EDM&first=20001&last=21230&henrik=10&daniel=71&kesler=83

Where the bit in red can be changed to the official abbreviation for any NHL team, and the bits in green are the jersey numbers of the players you want to lump together. This to see what happened when they were all three on the ice together.

In the resulting table their joint ice time is shown as fictional player #99. And in this case it's damn impressive.

Equally impressive is Viscoff, the joint ice time of Visnovsky and Horcoff. (just lop &kesler=83 off of the end of the url above).

They've outshot the bad guys by a bunch when they are on the ice together at even strength. The rate they are going, for every 100 shots the opponent gets, we'd see them get 171. And they are EV+4 and EV-0 to boot.

And if you look at where the faceoffs started for them, and where they ended (not including goals) ... it's Bobby-Orr-style goodness in terms of driving the play towards the offensive zone. They started in the offensive zone 2 more times than in their own end, and finished in the offensive end of the rink a whopping 14 times more. I'll make up a word called ZoneShift, and their score is +12.
Shots Rate: 171/100
ZoneShift: +12

And this with 81:33 played together at EV, that's just a bit less than half of Horcoff's icetime.

Viscoff is the bomb, folks.

Though Lidsterberg can play a bit as well:
Shots Rate: 169/100
ZoneShift: +12

Lidsterberg is eerily close to Viscoff's numbers so far. The ZoneShift is even more impressive considering they've played just 52 minutes together at EV so far. Unless you hold Lidsterberg responsible for the .808 even strength save percantage (EVsave%) behind them and the resulting EV+/- 0. Personally, I don't, just a bit of misfortune so far I think.

And at this moment Thornoyle just might be the best player in the game.
Shots Rate: 173/100
ZoneShift: +15
This in about 80 minutes together. The percentages have been cruel to Thornoyle as well, so far they manage to be EV+/- -1 despite clearly outplaying the hell out of their opponents.

These are the only two-headed monsters that I checked. I hope that some of you folks look up other guys. As much as anything that's the reason for this post, to let people know that this app is out there, and that it's really not hard to use. So if you want to see how Moreau and Pisani have done with either Cole or Penner on the starboard side ... easy peasy. Same for where their shifts started and ended.

I also have a point regarding Viscoff and the Oilers: The Oilers have some problems right now, most teams do, but their best players are very good, and they've been their best players to date. That is clearly not a problem.

56 Comments:

Blogger andy grabia said...

Beautiful post, Vic. As per usual with these types of convos, I have zilch to add in terms of substance. But I appreciate the hell out of them. Thanks a bunch.

11/10/2008 5:27 pm  
Blogger Black Dog said...

I love this Viscoff guy!

Terrific stuff Vic. Thanks for the work.

11/10/2008 7:28 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

Thanks Andy and Pat.

And a Viscoff update from last night:

Viscoff was on the ice for 5 faceoffs in the defensive zone, all of these against the Rangers top six forwards.

Viscoff was on the ice for zero faceoffs in the offensive zone.

Viscoff was EV+1 EV-0 on the night. The Oilers outshot the Rangers best players 5 to 1 when he was on the ice at even strength. That's a shots+/- of +4, best Oiler on the night by some distance, and with tough ice time. Zoneshift +6.

If, somehow, Gilner (Gagbert?) is becoming nearly as good as Viscoff by April ... the Oilers are going to be a heck of a team at 5v5 hockey. Wildly optimistic to think that would happen I know, but it's not beyond the realm of possibility either.

11/11/2008 10:20 am  
Blogger spOILer said...

You have the sweetest apps, Vic. "ZoneShift" sounds perfect, and as LT says, is the kind of cool language the new stats need. Scarcely a day goes by when I don't slide by here and wish for a new post. ;o)

11/11/2008 11:41 am  
Blogger Slipper said...

To echo spOILer's sentiment, www.timeonice.com is one of my fave sites. I find myself fucking around on it for hours, ecspecially now that I know about all the other apps.

At the risk of sounding like an elitist ass-grabber, keep up the great work Vic. As much as people eulogize the hockey net these days, between your sites, MC's, behind the net, and hockey analysis, I find it's a hockey nerd's paradise.

And post more!

11/11/2008 1:17 pm  
Blogger rananda said...

Semin/Green are at 173/100 and +1.

The +1 is somewhat misleading because they've been putting the puck in with such frequency (12 ES GF vs to 1 GA). Were Semin not so deadly around the net some of those goals would have ended up as offensive zone faceoffs rather than at center ice. That's probably one important caveat keep at least in the back of one's mind when playing with this ridiculously fun and useful tool.

By way of counter example, Semin/Poti are at 154/100 and +9 in only 21 min at ES. That extrapolates to something disgusting with even Thornoyle type minutes. It's a small sample size to be sure, but I think I'd rather see more of Poti and less of the the Green lantern backing up Semin.

11/11/2008 2:26 pm  
Blogger Kent W. said...

I have a feeling this will add fuel to my "get Conroy off the top line" crusade.

I wish had known about this last year as I suffered through Anders Eriksson playing in the Flames top 4.

Great stuff.

11/11/2008 2:28 pm  
Blogger Slipper said...

Vic:

http://timeonice.com/playershots.php?team=WSH&first=20001&last=21230&henrik=52&daniel=28

This says Semin and Green have been on the ice together for +12/-1.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/200809players/player0394.php

HockeyAnalysis has them at +7/-2.

Am I missing something?

11/11/2008 4:16 pm  
Blogger Black Dog said...

At the risk of sounding like the grumpy old man that I am rapidly becoming this whole complaining about elitism burns my ass.

Forget about critical thought or intellectual curiousity. Instead of trying to figure out what a player's value is and how he helps his team win games lets cheer for a guy like Lupul, busted down to the fourth line once again.

Great stuff Vic. So glad to see you and Dennis posting on a regular basis again. Now if we could only get Riversq to pop up a little more frequently we'd really be cooking.

11/11/2008 5:06 pm  
Blogger Slipper said...

Well obviously whoever is coaching Lupul in Philly can't coach offensive players, or something like that.

Actually it's not the scoring that's the issue. It's that he's into his fifth NHL season now, and he's barely treading water against nobodies.

And wasn't that always the argument against him?

11/11/2008 7:29 pm  
Blogger Black Dog said...

slipper - I never had you pegged as a Lowe lyncher myself ;)

its all macT's fault

plus he's got nobody to play with in Philly

11/11/2008 9:09 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

Rananda:

The teamxfaceoffs app doesn't count the goals, but just to simplify the script, not for practical reasons.

So "ZoneShift" for Green/Semin would be +13. That's the way I calculated it in the post above. I mean obviously a shift that ended in a goal ended in the other team's end of the rink. You just have to add in the EV+/- manually, that's all.

On Poti. I would never have believed it if I hadn't seen it, but he has become a remarkably poised NHL defender IMO. I've seen him play at least 20 games since he left the Rangers, so surely it's not just luck.

The results in just 21 minutes this season might be, though.

And as you're a Caps follower, I'd appreciate it if you drop by to let us know if Fedorov plays a game on defence again (+20 corsi in ONE GAME last time he did it according to Japer, Damn!. He was playing with Jurcina apparently (who I rate in limited viewing, though it appears Caps fans aren't so keen on the guy).

11/11/2008 9:09 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

slipper:

I just did a quick scroll through the gamesheets and came up with +11, -1. Though there was an goal scored with DAL's goalie pulled, and Johnson counts those, so it would be +11 -2 by his measure, on the off chance that i counted right.

I suspect that he has an automated script that runs once a week or so. And he's not got the recent games in their yet, though I dunno.

The empty net thing actually gets pretty significant in short order, I don't know why he doesn't weed those out. But it's a terrific resource and beggars can't be choosers, so i won't bitch.

Over the course of a year, there may be some minor differences if he is going from different data sheets. My scripts just use the play by play data, and about 1 line in 300 seems to have an error. Only one goal was wrong last year though (EDM vs VAN, a PP goal was credited as even strength) ... but screw it, this isn't brain surgery. Hell, there are goals this year that probably shouldn't have been counted, and vice versa. The overall picture for players changes little.

11/11/2008 9:45 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

Pat

Yeah, I'd love it if rivers posted more too, a few others as well. But life gets in the way, I suppose.

And as senseless as this hobby is (in fairness, all hobbies are) Dennis' scoring chance stuff has really kept me in the fold. We're 20 years behind Roger Neilson right now, but we'll catch up at speed with this stuff, guys.

11/11/2008 9:51 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

Pat:

Also, on the whole "elitist" thing. Really, who are these fuckers to even suggest it?

I want to talk hockey with the cool kids, and Lowetide's combination of prolificness (word?), paralytic fear of conflict and general good-guyness ... well it has brought the best and the worst to our corner of the web. Not Lain's fault, in fact much to his credit, he's just being himself. But it's the way it is.

So save me a special place in hell for not taking an hour out of my day to charm and indoctrinate an insulting, simple nutbar. And in a way that makes him feel better about himself.

Some random internet loon passes through the Oilogosphere and craps on the floor, and we should mop it up and thank him for coming? I don't think so. The Oil blogosphere is different things to different people I know, but it's not a charitable organization, I know that for sure.

11/11/2008 10:03 pm  
Blogger Black Dog said...

vic - yeah we're all busier but distractions from paying the mortgage and changing diapers are always welcome

Dennis' stuff really is terrific

yeah, the GDTs that number in the hundreds of comments are tiresome, have to wade through the chaff to find the wheat

but so it goes, I guess, there's a lot of terrific stuff out there - I know a few of the new blogs are great, just have to take the time to check them out

11/12/2008 8:13 am  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

I didn't mean to sound like a cranky old man there, with more noise has come more signal. Rough with the smooth, and all that.

On MCs thread the other day he linked back to the 'good old days' of HFboards during the lockout. And that was some great hockey talk with just the hradcore cats still around, and the bipolar kids leaving us to our own discussions.

But now on that thread we have Matt, slipper and Jeff and others, guys who add real value and we didn't know them before.

And Spoiler here, as well as Scott, the Cino lads, Andy, yourself, Alana, PDO, Contrarian Goaltender, jonathon, Bank shot, choppystride, Kent, boondock ... and I'm sure that I'm missing at least a dozen others (no offense intended if I did) they really add a lot to the conversation I think.

I guess i just want the signal without the noise, and sensibly that will never happen, it's just not the nature of the beast. And the good old days were never really as good as they seemed, and what comes next, if anything at all ... it will probably be better.

Still, it grates my tit to see random kids and fools pissing on something terrific that has been written on the Oiler corner of the internet.

11/12/2008 12:12 pm  
Blogger namflashback said...

Yeah, it was certainly nice not to have to "filter" the comments. The 06 run was fun, not just for the hockey, but that was when I discovered all these sites. Pissed myself laughing, I nearly did.

Good entertainment, and ways to understand the game which had always seemed intuitively right -- but lacked evidence.

Thanks Vic.

11/12/2008 1:23 pm  
Blogger Black Dog said...

yeah I hear ya, just posted on the salad days actually

good times

I felt like I was banging my head against the wall a lot - you get on a thread and it devolves into a discussion on why Hemsky is a garbage player and Horcoff is terrible and all that shit. Its depressing. But then Dennis pops up with his notes at the end of the period or Willis makes a comment that's quick and incisive and another avenue opens up and away you go.

Its just a little more work cutting through the crap to get to the good stuff - its truly a pain in the ass and I miss the "old days", so to speak, but so it goes.

11/12/2008 1:25 pm  
Blogger rananda said...

So "ZoneShift" for Green/Semin would be +13

right, that's what i was getting too. i didn't realize that's how you were calculating it for viscoff and thornoyle, but it makes the most sense and the way it should be played. interesting results i would think given the reputation of those two, dont you think?

I would never have believed it if I hadn't seen it, but he has become a remarkably poised NHL defender IMO.

same here. i watched him a bunch with the rangers and thought he had some nice tools but was essentially a nightmare on ice. when he left for long island (where alive players go to die and dead players go to become zombies) i didnt watch him much him much and didnt think of him at all. when the caps signed him i was very worried, but something obviously clicked under ted nolan because the dude is just brutally solid back there. he's become quite a player. hopefully some of poti's smarts will rub off on green.

And as you're a Caps follower, I'd appreciate it if you drop by to let us know if Fedorov plays a game on defence again

will do. he'd be playing d right now if he wasn't hurt (morrison is hurt so they've had to call up sloan). dude is just so solid. he's played four games back there this season and has looked good in all of them. he's been a beast wrt to corsi all season (as has nylander who you know i love). by my count feds has played four games on d this season thus far. he's intimated that he's happy going back and playing d in a pinch but would prefer to remain up front. which is too bad because it would allow them to trade morrison or sit jurcina/erskine (tho i like jurcina too) and play nylander more.

11/12/2008 1:42 pm  
Blogger HBomb said...

Initial glance suggests that this Getzger guy playing for Anaheim isn't too bad either. Massive Corsi, ESSV% of .975, EV+7/EV-1.

Not too shabby.....

I think it would be neat to look at elite forwards and elite defensemen pairings. My initial guess is that the beast known as Phanginla is probably not having such a hot-shit start to this season.

11/12/2008 3:12 pm  
Blogger rananda said...

By my math, Phanginla is:

Shot Rate = 124/100; "ZS" -11. That is putrid compared to the numbers we've seen for Viscoff, Listerberg, and Gremin.

Getzger (though I really prefer Pronglaf) has some weird shit going on:

1Shot Rate = 145/100; "ZS" a ridiculous +24. Their getting the puck to end in the right place but w/o the results of the big guys.

This (along with relative success of the players/teams considered thus far) makes me think that shot rate is going to be more determinative of player/team results than Zone Shifting.

11/12/2008 4:30 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

Rananda

Iginla has had a poor start, Kent W and Matt Fenwick have been bemoaning that fact.

Last year Iginla had a ZoneShift of +86, which was surely one of the best in the league. He'll come around eventually I'm sure. The Flames are fortunate that their forward depth is improved a lot from last season, or they could be in trouble deep right now.

Having your shifts end going north doesn't help your scoring, in fact it surely hurts it somewhat. It does show that your shifts aren't ending with one last attempt to beat someone at the blue line though. And of course the guys who come onto the ice after you are going to do a lot better.

I think that's one of the big differences between the fans who rate Kovalchuk and Lecavalier as highly as Iginla or Zetterberg, and those that don't.

And if we go back (and we can if I ever get around to scripting it) we can see how Rick Nash has improved a bunch in this area since Hitchcock arrived, even though he's probably doing less to help people win hockey pools, he's doing more to help the Jackets win hockey games, methinks.

11/12/2008 8:49 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

As I'm on a Rick Nash ramble, I'll carry on. He used to be my poster boy for "fan loved high scoring guy who isn't doing much to help his team win".

In CBJ's last game, on home ice vs CGY, Nash played more against Iginla than any other Blue Jacket forward.

I love it when leopards change their spots. And he'll get a lot better yet I suspect. The Jackets are a team to watch.

11/12/2008 8:56 pm  
Blogger Black Dog said...

vic - yeah, Nash has turned into a terrific player - he just killed the Oilers last week

Didn't score but everytime he was on the ice it sure seemed like he had it moving the wrong way for our side.

11/12/2008 9:09 pm  
Blogger HBomb said...

Vic: even though you specifically point out Kovalchuk and Lecavalier, wouldn't both those guys count as individuals who have both come a long way in regards to being "elite"?

They'd both be in my discussion as top-ten forwards in the league. Hell, Lecavalier's in my top five (in no particular order, Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin and Zetterberg are the others), at least when it comes to the question of "who would you take on your squad for the next ten years".

And yes, I'd seriously consider taking Zetterberg over anyone else at this point. The guy doesn't get nearly enough credit for just how good he is. By far the best value for his salary of ANY player in the NHL this year. He's going to easily double his paycheque next year, especially if guys like Staal and Lecavalier are pulling in 8M per season going forward.

Detroit's going to have to kiss it's "no one makes more than Lidstrom" rule goodbye, methinks.

11/12/2008 11:07 pm  
Blogger Jonathan said...

Thanks for this, Vic.

Interesting to note: the shots rate drops to 123/100, and the ZoneShift increases to +16 with Souray and Horcoff paired.

That's quite a fluctuation in shot rate; it's not conclusive but it does seem to indicate that 71 has more to do with 71-44 success as a tandem than 44 does.

11/13/2008 8:56 am  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

jonathon:

Cool. Though as per comment 3, Viscoff had great results in Manhattan. So at this moment Viscoff is:
EV+/- +5
Shots rate: 181/100
ZoneShift: +18

So I think that there are a lot of arrows pointing in the direction of Visnovsky being the driving force on that pairing.

Dennis' scoring chance totals are separating Vis from Souray as well. Though Vis has gotten a bit more icetime, and much of it with offensive zone draws supporting kid forwards.

11/13/2008 9:30 am  
Blogger Kent W. said...

I didn't mean to sound like a cranky old man there, with more noise has come more signal. Rough with the smooth, and all that.

On MCs thread the other day he linked back to the 'good old days' of HFboards during the lockout. And that was some great hockey talk with just the hradcore cats still around, and the bipolar kids leaving us to our own discussions.

But now on that thread we have Matt, slipper and Jeff and others, guys who add real value and we didn't know them before.

And Spoiler here, as well as Scott, the Cino lads, Andy, yourself, Alana, PDO, Contrarian Goaltender, jonathon, Bank shot, choppystride, Kent, boondock ... and I'm sure that I'm missing at least a dozen others (no offense intended if I did) they really add a lot to the conversation I think.


Im flattered to be included in this list. I honestly feel like I basically just stand on the shoulders of giants (IOF, BOA, MC79, etc) when it comes to my own corner of the web.

As for the elitism remarks and messageboards discussions...I recently decided to ditch that venue altogether. I mean, try arguing on calgarypuck.com that Iginla isn't having that great of a season so far, despite his counting numbers...all serious discussion will be washed out by snide denunciations, glib remarks and total disregard for anything besides "he has 22 points!".

And it's not even that I think I'm right or have a monopoly on the correct perspective...but, really, I just don't see the game the same way as 95% of the people there.

Sometimes it would be nice if more Flames fans were contributing to the discussions around these parts, but...if I have to hang with the Oilers fans for the interesting analysis, so be it.

11/13/2008 10:32 am  
Blogger Slipper said...

Lecavalier has finsh, but his underlying numbers and results have been terrible for atleast the past two seasons. Terrible for a 7 million dollar player. Horrendous for a 10 million dollar player.

If it's still all about outscoring and contibution to winning, I find it hard to argue for VL as an elite forward. Sure, he'll help with in a hockey pool- but even then, he plays so many minutes that the effenciency is low for the points he produces.

He's also one of the guys who puts up mediocred to bad outshooting/outscoring numbers hwile getting more attack zone draws than defensive zone. Despite that his shifts still end in the wrong end of the rink more often than the irght end.

Hemsky>>>>>>>Vinny

Lecavalier just gives sooooo much back the other way. I think he's one of the most over-rated players in the NHL.

11/13/2008 1:29 pm  
Blogger andy grabia said...

I love it when leopards change their spots. And he'll get a lot better yet I suspect. The Jackets are a team to watch.

Is this anything other than Hitchcock? It can't be, can it? He did the same f**king thing with Modano and Hull, too, to our detriment. God, I wish he was coaching our hockey club.

11/13/2008 9:07 pm  
Blogger Black Dog said...

Andy's nailed it, I would say.

11/14/2008 7:50 am  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

Hitchcock deserves props for sure. I don't know about Hull though, he seemed to be fighting it every step of the way. He did hold it together for a couple of playoff runs though.

I imagine that Hitchcock believes that your most talented players need to do a lot to help you win in order for you team to be successful.

And he took Turgeon, who was a useful player in a narrow view, and ground him into a fine white powder. Zherdev always seemed to be a struggle for him as well.

Most guys develop more complete games as they get older, or so it seems to me. Players like Whitney, Stillman, Barnes, etc ... you don't see them for a while, and all of a sudden they are one of their coach's most trusted players. More progression and maturation than turnaround, though.

Marc Savard is the turnaround of all turnarounds, to my mind at least. It wasn't that long ago that he was like an especially talented Kyle Wellwood, didn't Marc get cut from a Euro team during the lockout for showing up fat?

11/14/2008 10:08 am  
Blogger Dennis said...

Great stuff, Again, Vic.

I know Ty threw around the idea of writing a Baseball Prospectus type book regarding hockey stats and I would love to see someone try that and when it happens it should really come from our corner.

11/14/2008 11:47 am  
Blogger Black Dog said...

Vic - agreed on the maturation process being a natural part of these guys becoming complete players

that and a sense of preservation I guess, at times

note how Wellwood dropped the cheeseburger diet as soon as it became clear that his career was on the line. don't think he'd clear waivers now

and there are guys like Moreau and Reasoner who round out their games when the offensive numbers from junior and college don't translate to the pros

different realm of course - a guy like Nash or Modano would always find employment based on their skill alone, Savard too

but it speaks to a desire to win, to get better, coaching, the light going on, I guess it would vary from player to player

I am with Andy - I truly wonder how the Oilers would look with a guy like Hitchcock behind the bench. Or Wilson for that matter. I like MacT and I know LT often demonstrates how so many of these guys, with few exceptions (Cleary) don't outperform their play here when they leave Edmonton

I just think that there might be something more out there then Coach Buchberger in the future

11/14/2008 11:59 am  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

rananda:

Which four games has Fedorov played on D? I want to test some Babcock reasoning here.

11/14/2008 3:04 pm  
Blogger Glen said...

83-10-26 Corsi +2
83-10-12 Corsi +15

If I recall correctly, a lot less games as well. Why did Nillson have such a short leash after playing so well last year?

11/14/2008 8:37 pm  
Blogger PDO said...

Alright.

I finally noticed an update here (btw... I've heard of people saying there's some random script that you can have to show you when new blogger posts are made? Does ANYONE know what I'm talking about? I can promise... uh... something. Please?), and am ridiculously pleased. This is EXCELLENT.

Thing is, and I think I'm just being thick here... is there a way to see Horcoff's numbers with Visnovsky OFF the ice? I'm sitting here 100% positive it can be done.... but with no idea how to do it. I'll blame the mens league beers....

11/15/2008 1:28 am  
Blogger HBomb said...

pdo: Wouldn't that be a simple matter of just adding/subtracting Horcoff's numbers on his own to/from the Viscoff numbers? Or am I over-simplifying things here?

Damn engineering mind, cannot brain well on a Saturday.....

11/15/2008 9:02 am  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

Yup, that's right Hbomb

11/15/2008 9:26 am  
Blogger andy grabia said...

Or Wilson for that matter.

Shudder.

11/15/2008 10:50 am  
Blogger PDO said...

I knew it was easy.

Thanks HBomb, Vic...

11/15/2008 6:21 pm  
Blogger mc79hockey said...

(btw... I've heard of people saying there's some random script that you can have to show you when new blogger posts are made? Does ANYONE know what I'm talking about? I can promise... uh... something. Please?

I use Google Reader. Fantastic setup.

11/16/2008 2:21 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

I use Sage feed reader and Firefox browser.

I was using Omea before, but I like Sage a lot better.

11/17/2008 2:03 pm  
Blogger raventalon40 said...

Well the other Oilers have a lot to learn from Shawnomir Viscoff.

Neat stuff Vic.

11/18/2008 2:01 am  
Blogger PDO said...

Ty/Vic,

Thanks. I went with sage reader... this is fantastic.

11/18/2008 9:57 pm  
Blogger PDO said...

Also, and I just noticed this... but there's no way it's a coincidence that it was a Penner jersey you chose to stretch to fit the two of them in?

That's too damn funny.

11/18/2008 10:18 pm  
Blogger rananda said...

Having your shifts end going north doesn't help your scoring, in fact it surely hurts it somewhat. It does show that your shifts aren't ending with one last attempt to beat someone at the blue line though. And of course the guys who come onto the ice after you are going to do a lot better.

right, i understand the point here and i mostly agree with it. i was just pointing out that the ridiculous shone shift stats for pronglaf hadnt exactly translated to a great start for the team, as they were somewhat struggling compared to the teams of the other duos we looked at (obv not compared to edm).

and i will disagree a bit with the thought that having a high zone shift necessarily hurts your scoring numbers. or rather, i think said differently, having the skills and game to produce great scoring numbers will often be reflected in a high zone shift number. i understand the point about lecavalier and kovalchuck (they're thinking about leaving their zone early to get a break, meanwhile the play is in their end until the whistle blows). however, i think the other side of the zone shift deal is that players who own the puck and create pressure in the o-zone get the puck stuck down there until the other team can somehow get a whistle.

11/21/2008 3:03 pm  
Blogger rananda said...

Marc Savard is the turnaround of all turnarounds, to my mind at least. It wasn't that long ago that he was like an especially talented Kyle Wellwood, didn't Marc get cut from a Euro team during the lockout for showing up fat?

agree on savard. it's pretty ridiculous. dude was run of town in calgary, routinely a healthy scratch for not playing d, and not 5 or 6 years later is the best two-way center on one of the best teams in the east. you can give as much credit as you want to his coaches (hartley?) but ultimately this stuff comes from the player. and yea im not sure if he got cut but he only played 5 games with a first division swiss team before moving over to a second div swiss team. very odd. playing jv hockey as a senior doesnt seem to be the best way for someone to work on their complete game, but homeboy found a way to do it.

11/21/2008 3:13 pm  
Blogger rananda said...

Which four games has Fedorov played on D? I want to test some Babcock reasoning here.

they were:

10/13 v van
10/16 v pit (moved back to d early when poti was injured)
10/18 v nj
10/24 v pho

bring on the babcock reasoning.

11/21/2008 3:20 pm  
Blogger shep said...

whats shawnomir viscoff's stats after the LA game?

improving? even? worse?

11/27/2008 4:40 am  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

shep:

Not to be rude, but the major thrust of this post was to give people a simple way of looking tha stuff up themselves.

12/05/2008 2:43 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

rananda:

Thanks. The Babcock theory (Dmen drive possession for a team with small forwards) doesn't really work here too well. For one, the Caps have a lot of forwards that are strong on the puck, and even though Fedorov was the bomb at the territorial advantage numbers (corsi, faceoffs, zoneshift) when he played D, they lost that from him up front, so it looks to be near enough a wash.

When Fedorov was one of the fastest players in the league, and he isn't close to that now, he was one of the biggest difference makers in the game, terrific player who logged tough ice time with rare credit. And he's still damn useful.

BTW: Sounds like the Caps are trying to give Nylander away, and that he has waived his NMC. Does it sound like there are going to be any takers?

12/05/2008 2:48 pm  
Blogger rananda said...

what makes you think he has waived his nmc? certainly possible, but i havent heard that he had (he claims he hasnt even been approached by mcphee to waive it, though what else is gonna say?). i'll admit that nylander has not played up to snuff this season, particularly lately. i think some of that has to be bc of his place on the team (not much pp time, scratched once, played w a variety of linemates). he looked very good w semin earlier in the season, but i think it's clear, for better or worse, he's not one of boudreau's guys (on this team at least) and that's prolly not gonna change. i love the guy, but it's prolly best for him to be moved at this point. takers? i really dont know. chicago is the obvious destination but their cap situation is murky and they have some other decisions to make (goalies, havlat). i really dont know what's going to happen, but i think nylander is the type of player that can be very productive given a certain situation. oh, how he must miss jagr.

12/08/2008 10:18 am  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

rananda:

I heard it on 1260 AM, a local sports talk station. It came from a Chicago media guy, though. He said that the Hawks were interested and that Nylander was willing to drop his NMC. Then again, he seemed to think that the Hawks would be able to shift Khabibulin and Sopel without absorbing any cap hit, so I'm not sure about this.

If the Caps were somehow able to trade Nylander for Havlat, they would be the team to beat in the East, methinks. I can't imagine CHI doing that, but you never know.

12/10/2008 4:57 am  
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5/31/2013 12:00 am  

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