Discussing Two Deadline deals
To ATL: Christensen, Armstrong, Esposito, 2008 PIT 1st
To PIT: Marian Hossa, Dupuis
Darren Dreger and Bob McKenzie imply that this is a decision that came from above. This sounds pretty reasonable, if you look at this deal as McKenzie does in tradional hockey fashion; that the team is close to winning now, the conference is tight, and this move may well put them over the top. It could also, potentially and maybe even probably, be a smart move from a business perspective.
When I was thinking about this last night after the deal was completed, I was looking at it in a simple fashion. If adding Hossa and Dupuis, even as pure rentals, gets PIT into the 3rd or 4th round instead of the 2nd, or the 3rd round instead of bounced in the 1st or 2nd, this deal is probably a winner for PIT. They would earn whatever additional profit they would generate from 2-8 extra home playoff games. That is probably worth somewhere between 2 and 10 mil, maybe even more (since I'm assuming ticket prices rise in PIT as you get to the next round). PIT picks up ~ 1.55 mil in salary by adding Hossa and Dupuis while removing ~0.4 mil in salary by subtracting Christensen and Armstrong, for a net addition of 1.15 mil. Having seen MC's recent (and not so recent) postings, I feel obligated to mention that this analysis is unlikely to be complete enough, but as a rationale for why they would have gone after Hossa, I think it still illustrates the general point in any case. I'll try to look at it more in depth in the comment section.
It appears that PIT feels it is worth gambling by spending 1.15 mil now for a chance at boosting their playoff revenue. That is without considering that, perhaps, they can boost season ticket prices for next season and beyond with a long playoff run this season, and without considering their ability to re-sign either Hossa or Dupuis.
To TB: Smith, Halpern, Jokinen, 2009 4th
To DAL: Brad Richards, Holmqvist
First, congrats to Vic on calling Richards to DAL, can't remember where I read you calling that one, but right on the money.
This deal is pretty interesting to me, because when we talked about it a bit at LT's site, we figured that something like Roloson, Stoll, Torres would be more or less money neutral for the Oilers.
Interestingly enough, that's kind of what they package ended up being. Halpern is signed for 2 years after this at a 2 mil cap hit, while Torres is signed for 2 years after this with a 2.25 mil cap hit (but at 2.5-2.6mil in real dollars). Jokinen's signed for another year at a 1.82 cap hit (makes 1.875mil) while Stoll reaches UFA 1 year earlier and is due a 2.2 mil QO this summer (but can be taken to arb, where theoretically he could be awarded 85% of 2.2 mil. Hard to know what he'd earn thru arbitration, but with no look at comparables I'm not sure he'd be due a paycut).
Smith is obviously way younger than Roloson, and makes 2.7 mil less, but both are UFA's after next season.
If EDM had offered Roloson, Deslauriers, Stoll and Torres for Richards and Denis, would that seem like an offer somewhere in the ballpark of the DAL offer*? Would anyone have been for that, from an Oilers perspective?
* = this is mostly just for argument's sake. I think TB must like Smith quite a bit, and Jokinen as well, and so they probably prefer the DAL offer in any case.