Sunday, January 25, 2009

Unnerving time to be an Oilers fan

Being a sports fan comes with the sobering side effect of helplessness, from time to time. It's fun to identify with your team of choice, but how does one relate to "his" team when rumours start leaking that he desperately hopes to be untrue?

I find these rumors particularly troubling, because I can concoct a horrific scenario where the deal is already done but waiting to be announced post all star game. If that is the case, start your worrying/hoping Oilers fans. If the speculated return is somewhere between Garrioch and Matheson's estimates, that is an awful lot to pay. Personally, I wouldn't be even comfortable trading the lesser end of that range for Lecavalier.

The biggest concern of mine, were I making the decision for the Oilers, in acquiring Lecavalier would be his contract: 11 years, $85 million, ~ $7.7 million cap hit, starting in 09/10. That contract is, in my mind, probably not crazily high in relation to Lecavalier's on-ice value on a per year basis, but still a little bit high. And even if it is in proportion on a yearly basis, the length makes it prohibitive in terms of the risk I would be willing to accept. I would have, at best, a hard time deciding whether to sign Lecavalier to that contract as a UFA, nevermind giving up any assets for the right to do so.

To give up, say, Cogliano, Nilsson, Gilbert, and 2 1sts for Lecavalier would seem like a crazy overpay to acquire a "franchise player".

Admittedly, I don't have to worry about marketing, selling tickets, getting an arena built, and maybe there are reasons beside on ice considerations that increase Edmonton's interest in Lecavalier. It will be interesting to see what the terms of the trade would be, if it happens (though I doubt it will for a variety of reasons, including EDM's unwillingness to part with the rumoured package, possible reluctance of Lecavalier to come to EDM (Do you want to trade and commit that much to a player who doesn't want to be here?), the difficulty of making trades in today's market).

So count me as a fan hoping this deal doesn't occur based on the rumours floating, and if it does, only a bargain basement price.

2 Comments:

Blogger misfit said...

I'm not huge on the idea of the Oilers trading for Lecavalier, but if I'm not wrong about how buyouts work, the last 3 years of his contract could be bought out, and you'd only be on the hook for $722K (albeit for 6 years). That's less than what we're currently overpaying Penner by.

Of course, this is all based on the fact that I understand the buyout rules correctly, and I wouldn't bet the farm on that.

1/26/2009 10:20 am  
Blogger hunter1909 said...

Oilers get their dream of a first line center so stfu please.

1/28/2009 10:03 am  

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