Thursday, May 07, 2009

Scoring Chances: Part V of Many. Home and Away

Much of the banter on Oilers talk radio revolved around the Oilers being a terrible home team and a good road team this season. By eye, this struck me as nonsense. The Oilers played better at home, just got fewer breaks. Of course if you called that thought into a sports radio show you would be roundly mocked and chided, so I didn't.

But Scott has tabbed up the home and away scoring chances for the Oilers this year, and I have the overall league home and away corsi numbers for 07/08 as used in this post last summer.

So, expressed as a percentage of the total, and reflective of the percentage of the territorial advantage, here is how the Oilers did in terms of scoring chances, home and away, in 08/09. The 07/08 leaguewide corsi numbers serve as a benchmark, the average for the league.

And here you are, just click to enlarge:



And the special teams scoring chance numbers were far superior at home. Both the PK and PP. I suspect that this is mostly because an increase in territorial advantage leads to more PPs and fewer PKs for every team. So home teams get a lot more PP opportunities.

So the Oilers were better at home than on the road. And in the right measure. The evidence strongly suggests that the relatively good road record was just luck.

4 Comments:

Blogger Olivier said...

Vic: I actually noted scoring chances for the habs over a 30 something games stretch this year, beginning around the all-star break (or, as we habs fans now say: the beginning of the end). It's all strewn around on scrapes of paper and notebooks so it's not useful right now. I really only did it because I wondered if I was able to do it and then kept at it for a very simple reason: it really, truly enhances the game-watching experience!

I don't know up to which point what I did is reliable; I scored both games against the Oilers with results fairly similar to those of Dennis (like 2 more chances overall each game... or something like that...). I'll get around to computing it at some point, but I think it would be a tremendous help, if you want to get the ball rolling next year, to find a way to have the script on timeonice.com work not only for Oilers SC, but also for other teams; say you attribute the chances in a home/away pattern. The huge benefit would be, I think, a standardized data output.

5/07/2009 4:52 pm  
Blogger Olivier said...

Or, even more simply, release a standard php script on NHL code! Then you don't have to mess up your bandwith!

5/07/2009 4:55 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

Yeah, that won't be a problem.

At some point this summer I'll tweak the script to let you pick your team. Then I'll add something in to capture all of the data into mysql.

Baby steps, though.

5/07/2009 6:13 pm  
Blogger Showerhead said...

Hold up: "the special teams scoring chance numbers were far superior at home"? Are you talking raw totals?

When I first read it I thought you meant scoring chances per PP and that just doesn't sound right.

5/14/2009 3:17 pm  

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