Scoring Chances: Part VI of Many. The Problem with the PK
Shots metrics like corsi don't work worth a damn on special teams. But now we have scoring chances.
Dennis was sure that the problem with the PK was the skaters. I thought that Roloson was just letting in too many, or shooters were making their shots, luck and all that. It appears that Dennis was completely right.
The goals per scoring chance during even strength hockey was .22.
The goals per scoring chance during the PK was .22.
So like many other checks on Dennis' results, a few of which I listed in Part I, it's eerily consistent.
Roloson's PPsave% was terrible this year, but it looks like it's not his fault at all. The Oilers not only gave up too many shots, as we all knew, but that they gave up a disporportionate amount of scoring chances per shot. And that's on the coaching staff and the skaters, no way around it.
Contrarian goalie is currently revising a post seeing how EVsave% changed from season to season for goalies that changed teams. It's a clever idea. If he accounts for sample size (for both before and after seasons) I suspect he'll find that there is next to nothing in it, but we'll see. BUT, I think that if the same test is applied to PPsave%, we'll see some dramatic shifts.