Tuesday, June 30, 2009

The General Idea



The Y-axis is Corsi differential (shots directed at net) at 5V5 for 2008/2009.


The X-axis is Shifts Ending with Faceoffs by Zone (Offensive - Defensive) at 5V5 for 2008/2009.


The blue dots are the Oilers skaters.


The red dots are the Flames skaters.


I think we can see the problem here.

7 Comments:

Blogger R O said...

As a Flames fan, I thank you for putting this up!

I wonder what Detroit would look like...

6/30/2009 4:44 pm  
Blogger RiversQ said...

Well, I'm not going to put them up but Detroit and San Jose are awfully similar to Calgary by this measure, which makes sense because I think it's kind of the mark of a good team.

Calgary had a good team last year. It'll be interesting if they sign J-Bo though. If they keep all three d-men, I think they have a hard time putting together a group of forwards that can make this happen again.

6/30/2009 5:11 pm  
Blogger Olivier said...

Ok, I'm fudging around with google and can't find the definitive reference to the php script for zone shifts and faceoffs zones. I've found http://timeonice.com/xfaceoffs.php?gamenumber=XXXXX

and

http://timeonice.com/faceoffs.php?gamenumber=XXXX

Also, in a post dating from december 2007 (an excellent post about Zetterberg and Lecavalier, by the way), you referred to this method for calling the script:

http://timeonice.com/xfaceoffs.php?team=CGY

Which doesn't work anymore. I also recall seeing other methods, but cannot find them right now. What I tought was available is the equivalent of the playershots.php script for end of shift and start of shift faceoffs. If it doesn't exist, it's no big deal, I'll just scrape it off, but I'm lazy, so...

Thanks!

7/01/2009 1:58 am  
Blogger RiversQ said...

Olivier:

Use this

http://timeonice.com/teamxfaceoffs.php?team=XXX&first=20001&last=21230

For faceoffs by team (just plug in the 3 letter team code) for the whole 2008/2009 season.

If you want start of shift, just remove the 'x' from 'teamxfaceoffs' and then rinse and repeat.

Lastly, if you want 07/08 data, then just add '0708' after the 'team faceoffs'.

Happy hunting.

7/01/2009 2:49 am  
Blogger Olivier said...

Amazing.

Thanks, and thanks again!

7/01/2009 2:52 am  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

Cool. I'm a bit surprised that zone shift has such an obvious association with corsi. I would have thought that zone shift would have a bigger effect on the shift after than the shifts themselves.

Apparently not. I guess that the way shifts end is probably a bit less about being selfish and a bit more about ability.

On the whole though, it isn't pretty, is it? Someone, probably Lain, used the analogy of staying at the Marriott for a week. You know the bill is going to be ugly when you check out, but it's still a shock to see it. :D Sunny summed up the corsi-when-score-is-tied numbers, I don't know if he has posted them anywhere, but they paint a similar picture.

IMO this team needs more good players and fewer bad ones. Simple as that.

7/06/2009 7:26 pm  
Blogger The Falconer said...

Do I need to adjust the "end of shifts" data to account for Goals Scored For and Against?

If Kovalchuk has 25 Goals For that is going to show up as a Neutral Zone faceoff--even though the shift actually ended in the offensive end--or has Vic written a clever automatic adjustment in for this problem?

7/07/2009 10:18 pm  

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