Saturday, November 14, 2009

The Oilers At Even Strength So Far

alt. title: This Probably Isn't Going To End Well

The information in the table below speaks for itself, though your definition of "playing to the score" may differ from mine. I've included the data for the first nine games as well, just to put an exclamation point on Tyler's Irrational Exuberance post of October 26th.



11 Comments:

Blogger Olivier said...

Love that PTTS thingy. How did you came along the 2+ goals lead / 3rd period lead threshold?

11/14/2009 11:26 am  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

Just my best guess Olivier. It depends on the coach of the team, his roster, the quality of the opponent, how good your goalie is, where you are in the standings, etc.

I mean if VAN is leading DET by one goal early in the second period, at a game in MoTown, Luongo in the net ... he'll probably start shutting things down then and there.

In the same situation with Quenneville's Hawks and they'll probably keep coming at them well into the third. Especially if they think they can win the division this year, and surely they believe that they can.

But you have to draw the line somewhere, so that's where I drew it. There are surely better measures, but this is simple.

11/14/2009 11:58 am  
Blogger mc79hockey said...

I've been out of the loop, with a long trial, trip to Europe and some other personal stuff going on, so I haven't seen a hell of a lot of games this year.

With that said, and understanding that they were running with a depleted bench and playing their third game in four nights, they looked like dogshit at evens in Buffalo. I couldn't get over how little pressure they were putting on the puck or into the Sabres end of the ice. I'll have to go back and look at my stuff from 05-06 to see how many games they got outshot at evens in - they didn't even look like they were in this game at evens. Waiting and hoping for the PP is a lousy way to watch a hockey game; I feel like I'm watching playoff games against the Stars in the late 1990s.

Add to that: Zack Stortini was taking defensive draws and nobody seemed to be the least perturbed at this.

11/14/2009 4:51 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

Firstly. I hope you were acquitted.

Secondly. That game is pretty representative of the Oilers this year to my eye. In fact that was one of their better games recently. Granted I've been mostly recording games and speed watching them after the fact. And if I've accidentally discovered the final score beforehand ... it's high-speed watching.

They'll be better when healthy, I'm sure. But Quinn's not a good fit here. Plus Horcoff has been bad, and they need him to be terrific just to have a chance.

Lots of time yet, but it doesn't look good right now. Let's count our blessings, they deserve to be way lower in the standings than they are.

11/14/2009 5:24 pm  
Blogger Scott Reynolds said...

Yeah, this team is bad. I think they've improved their shot metrics a bit over the last couple of games and should be able to do so further against Atlanta tomorrow but they have a long way to go before they reach "respectable."

There have been some fun things so far though too. That Columbus game was great. The most fun I've had watching the Oilers since they played... Columbus... before last year's ASB.

11/14/2009 5:36 pm  
Blogger mc79hockey said...

That game is pretty representative of the Oilers this year to my eye. In fact that was one of their better games recently.

Yeah, I was reading LT's thread post-game and was kind of disurbed that people seemed to think that was a good game. I couldn't believe how little pressure there was on the Buffalo D when they were moving the puck or the number of solo rushes up ice.

Why do you think that Quinn's a poor fit, outside of the obvious that he'll be dead before this team is worth a damn? Personally, I'm pretty fucking depressed whenever I think about the team because I still can't see the plan or how things get better. If anything, it worse, because they're committed to so many guys for so long. They're already at $45MM for next year - I hate that it's mid November and I'm thinking about next year but I just don't see this squad as having a ghost of a chance.

11/14/2009 5:43 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

He's trying to roll the lines, Tyler. That's fine with the 03/04 Oilers, or the 05/06 bunch. And it makes it really tough for the bad guys to match D. But the Oilers just have too many bad players imo. The bottom six are playing a whack against good players, and it's not going well.

MacTavish would load the liabilities on one line and try to finesse his way through.

Quinn has no choice but to balance the lineup (whether that means spreading out the talented players or putting a bit of crap on every line ... depends on your mood, I suppose. Same difference though). They just don't have enough horses to play that game. I don't think so, anyways.

It will help a lot when they get healthy, but even then ... doesn't look good.

11/14/2009 6:25 pm  
Blogger Vic Ferrari said...

Scott:

Yeah, that Columbus game was terrific.

11/14/2009 6:27 pm  
Blogger Olivier said...

That whole spreading the crap around / waiting to get healthy could be applied to the habs, word for word. Jeebus lord, Gionta's out tonight and Spacek is obviously playing with a broken leg or something, no wonder the Preds peppered Price with 25 shots in the first. And now Martin has to lean onto MAB. *sigh*.

In fact, I think it applies to a good half of the league. The other half is doing it's best to run away from this meat grinder of a schedule and pile up points while they are still able to field more healthy bodies than the opposition...

11/14/2009 7:03 pm  
Blogger Black Dog said...

That Columbus game was brilliant.

Meanwhile the Avs are starting to come back to earth, the Canucks are just killing them. Puck support, hard on the puck, hard in the corners, going to the net. And they're big. 3-0 now.

Ty - its all context. The past few weeks were just so terrible. Flu and injuries and the team is shallow in terms of depth anyhow. I watched the game and I never really thought they posed a threat to the Sabres at all. But the team showed some energy and they weren't buried and that's progress. They've been that bad.

And as you said they are already in cap trouble next year. And as Vic pointed out in another post Tambellini just doesn't give one a happy feeling. Even if they manage to shed some contracts I would think that he'll give Olli Jokinen a ten year contract or something.

11/14/2009 8:32 pm  
Blogger Bruce said...

Oilers played a series of third periods that were so dreadful I blame flu even ahead of injuries. Having battled that flu to a regulation loss myself I can vouch for its ability to drain the energy and the will out of you halfway through the day, and that sure describes more than a few of the past 10 Oiler games.

In the first 6 games after the CBJ miracle they were outscored 8-0 in the third periods, only one of which the Oil were the ones playing to the score (vDET, in which they blew a 4-goal lead). But @CAL, @VAN, vCOL, @BOS, @NYI, vNYR were all desultory affairs that ground to a thoroughly predictable, nearly unwatchable conclusion.

The team has shown a little more life on the current road trip, and while that third period @BUF was superficially more of the same, that can at least in part be attributed to the normal effects of 3 games in 4 nights. I hope.

I do think this is the worst flu I have ever seen afflict a hockey team in nearly a half-century of following the game. I've seen an entire team get sick before (the Anaheim series in '06 being a striking example) but it's usually done with in a few days. This one has lasted weeks, with no certainty that it has yet run its course.

11/14/2009 11:36 pm  

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